Regardless of the duration of the Conference Committee process, the consensus right now is that due to the retaliatory tariffs on farmers, the Republicans’ desire to maintain control of the House after the 2018 midterm elections, and Trump’s fear of losing control of the House and the resultant threat of impeachment proceedings, The 2018 Farm Bill is very heavily favored to be signed into law by Trump before the 9/30 deadline — because Republicans need the votes from largely Republican farmers and largely Republican farming states in the fall election
There is a 4th factor which I haven’t discussed before which is also very important:
Everybody involved knows that the SNAP (food stamps) provisions are the major area of disagreement between the House and Senate
At the same time, everybody also knows that in midterm elections, the party in power historically loses House seats
Every poll shows the House losing a significant number of seats in the 2018 elections, so it would make zero sense to sign a temporary extension of the current farm bill, with the thought that next year the Republicans would have a better chance of cutting the SNAP budget, when the reality is that with more Democrats in the House after the 2018 elections, passing a cut in food stamps as part of the farm bill would be even more unlikely
Therefore, this year is the best chance the House Republicans will have to decrease SNAP funding, so signing an extension of the current farm bill because of disagreements on SNAP is nonsensical
The bottom line is that there is no logical reason for both the Democrats and the Republicans, and the House and the Senate, to not deliver The 2018 Farm Bill to Trump for his signature before the deadline
There is nothing to gain for either party by signing an extension, and everything to lose
As a result, the House and the Senate will come to a final agreement on The 2018 Farm Bill this summer and Trump will sign Hemp Legalization into law
Here is a very important timestamped clip discussing Mitch’s role in the Farm Bill Conference Committee:
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