Mr Mojo, I have the same thoughts as you floating around in the back of my mind, its definitely something I think about. Here are some of the reasons I come back to:
1) Obvious Uncertainty - even folks that are lawyers or CPA's dont know exactly what will happen here, there is fear of re-structuring and within that maybe commons could lose their shares etc.. Truth is no one knows what will happen yet, until the deal is done..
2) Lack of confidence in management to make something good happen - bad company track record
3) It seems the price has been pushed/held down - maybe MM's are trying to accumulate, maybe there are other forces at play to keep the price down for bidding reasons, who knows we can use our imagination on why some would try to keep the price down the reasons are endless..
4) The potential for warrants to be converted - is it possible, could they dilute the float? How would the warrants factor into a buyout? Some/all of of this potentially was put to rest with previous DD. There was talk of warrants being issued in the winter but that didn't happen after company was delisted, I think there may be other warrants out there but there is a limit on amount of A/S, also warrants may not even be able to be converted while in CCAA process.. I personally am not sure either way..
5) The stop sign at some brokerages which means either some folks cant buy, or some folks pass by
6) There was a big run from much lower ..007 people took profits
7) Lack of news, no Fins released, no additional monitor reports yet, I think this deflated some people, even though its not too big a deal. Buying and selling goes in emotional cycles, so there has been some nice consolidation since the big rise, things were kind of pessimistic last week and seem to be turning more optimistic again, the sentiment goes in cycles and the price reflects that. Keep in mind we have seen some solid support in this area so far even with the lack of news. Once people digest this price which I think is almost done we will see it bubble up higher.
9) In OTC land there are also a lot of people that want to trade and flip, they want to play for a day and then they are out trying to catch the next rocket ship, they don't want to hold for a month or two.
10) There's not room for a lot of big guys to get in even if they wanted to, this thing has a market cap right now of 6..95 mil, which is tiny. A big guy trying to get in with real money would drive the price up on himself.
11) Lets say this thing were to be bought out at .30 or ..40 cents a share which seems reasonable, at this moment that is not a sure bet so why would the market price this thing at say .20 until the picture becomes more clear? I know if wouldn't want to buy this thing right now at .20...... just saying..
The DD that from a pure Asset/Liability ratio shows that even in liquidation commons would be entitled to any leftover equity so at a bare minimum .05 should be recouped if this happened, which again seems unlikely.
Most folks are looking for the buyout, but its not super clear yet, so the market isn't pricing this yet as a buyout because it's not 100% for sure, there are other avenues this could take.
This play is basically an all or nothing, a do or die play at the moment to most people. I think in the meantime as we get closer to the potential news we see this thing slowly rise a bit to .07 or .10 if we are lucky, and then if the good news comes BOOM!
I think this thing is really just waiting for some news to give people more confidence, if we get that good news that we are all hoping for it should pop a good bit. Good luck to all and thank you to everyone for their contributions so far!
AI
