Market Direction and Stock Trends

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Russell 3000 Index (RUA) Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | July 14, 2018

Analysis for the Week of July 16, 2018

OUR ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jul. 13, 2018: Russell 3000 Cash closed today at 166736 and is trading up about 5.34% for the year from last year's closing of 158277. So far, we have been trading up for the past 9 days since the low made on Mon. Jul. 2, 2018. We did close above the previous session's high and the market remains quite strong.

The historical major high took place here in 2017 and we have since penetrated the low of last year intraday.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 194002 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Applying our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 169383 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 164567. This provides a 2.84% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 194121 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 144725. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 25%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 166736, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 1.56% beneath that level.

A possible change in trend appears due come this month in Russell 3000 Cash so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during February. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has been neutral for right now so caution is advisable and look more closely at the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a high at 166252 but closed on the weak side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 166252 on a monthly basis to imply a further advance to the upside immediately for now. The projected resistance for this week stands at 168133 and we need to close above this level on a weekly basis to maintain any upward momentum.

The Daily level of this market is currently in a full bullish immediate tone with support at 166067. To date, this rally has been up for nine daily sessions.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 9th at 167025, which was up 22 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 5th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 167025 to 164810. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of July 9th reaching 167025 has exceeded the previous high of 165767 made back during the week of March 12th. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 22 weeks overall.

Critical support still underlies this market at 144725 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength. Overall on a broader basis, looking at the monthly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 28 months. The last monthly level low was 105645, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 154075 on a closing basis would signal serious weakness ahead. The last high on the monthly level was 169423, which was created during January. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.

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