When will the Sauds wells run dry
I am just amazed that some people could believe one minute that Saudi Aramco could one day trades on a major stock exchange!
Info on reserves have been absolute state secrets for 40 years for a good reason: They are not even close to what is claimed!
Remember they were multiplied by 4 up to about 240 billions barrels in the 70s at the time OPEC was formed and quotas by country were going to be proportional to their reserves. Immediately after reserves were multiplied by huge amounts be severalcountries without a word of justification. Just a game to increase quotas!
Since then they produced at about 10 millions bopd, ie 3 billions a year. For more than 40 years! Which means about 120 billions produced!
Have they announced the discovery of NEW giant oilfields in that period? Not really.
Besides that there is a practical rule in the oil business: once you have produced half of the recoverable reserves,production can only go down!
Simmons was certainly too early in his call "Twilight in the desert" and some people drew the conclusion that he was totally wrong and that his scenario would not happen before many more decades. Wrong, absolutely wrong. No idea when it will happen but we will presumably first see some progressive declines in the production;
One significant details for the specialists: Saudi Arambo brings more and more heavy rigs in the kingdom, capable of drilling long horizontal wells. A clear sign that the days of easy, cheap, fast drilling of super-productive wells are over.
