Penman,
When you speak of uncertainty it seems that you are either a,) simply a hand waving pseudo-intellectual, or b.) are indeed a well educated person attempting to paint half the picture of uncertainty and questions unanswered.
When considering this investment, after consuming all of the information available (ie: monitor reports, company history, academic studies on bankruptcy outcome for companies who are heavily influenced by fluctuating commodity prices) you can perform a very simple probability exercise. For instance:
What percent chance do I think there will be a buyout scenario? With the current information, in my opinion, 65%. (Perhaps 25% for financial investor, 10% liquidation)
For buyout scenario- what percent chance do I think the price will be say 125mil or greater. In my opinion 50% chance.
Ok so for this simple thought exercise, my opinion for probability of buyout of more than 125mil would be .65 x .5 = .325 or a 32.5% chance.
Now if payout to creditors, PWC, legal fees = 75mil (... a very padded number) that would leave pps at .3875.
So for this scenario, I (my opinion) see my investment having a 1 in 3 chance of hitting roughly 40 cents.
This same exercise could be then applied to likelihood of buyout of 150mil, or 100mil etc. (And with every new piece of information adjust your probability of outcome.)
We are all hoping to make money here, it’s exciting to have something high risk - high reward in your portfolio. But some folks on here may find it much easier to sleep at night if they aren’t making money by intentionally misleading ppl or acting like there aren’t educated ways to consider uncertainty. Again I think most have good intentions and share great information, and you may just simply be trying to keep others aware that there is uncertainty in investing (though I find it more useful when others here offer more than just hand wavy opinions and thoughts).
As for uncertainty of information, don’t be afraid, email contacts at PWC... they got back to me when I did...
Ps. I loved how you invoked the credibility of actual great minds with your since deleted comment about Newton and Einstein.
