Spectrum Pharmaceutecals Inc (SPPI)

[antihama]

I posted this comment to Bret Jensen's SA article which was removed? For not agreeing w his buy - write option strategy? I'm glad I saved what I wrote which is

Bret, your option strategy makes sense if you feel that this huge run SPPI had in the last year is about to run its course but for those who are more bullish and believe this is the beginning of something bigger and it will go up above $25 then I’m not sure this option strategy is the right one. So here’s what it boils down to for me.

If MD Anderson pozi data continues to impress at World Conference on Lung Cancer 2018 in Sept do you think the share price will go above $25? Poziotinib is being used to treat patients w NSCLC EGFR and HER2 exon 20 mutation. Currently, patients treated w SoC have a PFS of 1.9 months and a Response Rate of under 10%. As a reminder, at the World Conference on Lung Cancer in October 2017, MD Anderson presented that all of the first 11 patients had a radiologic improvement in their disease, and 8 out of the 11 patients had a partial response (73% objective response rate). In the Nature Medicine publication in April 2018 it was reported that 7 out of those 11 patients had confirmed partial response (64% objective response rate) and the median PFS 6.6 months has not yet been reached. Dr. Heymach, the lead from MD Anderson, when asked at WCLC 2017 he stated (paraphrasing) “a response rate of 30% is extremely promising” and for PFS stated “4 months is an intriguing one and 6-7 months everyone would be quite excited”. Considering there are nearly ~19,700 patients worldwide (US, EU + Japan) with this mutation in the NSCLC indication and double that in all other indications, and that another TKI, Tagrisso is priced at $153,000/ yr and expected to have several billion is sales (note- the T790 mutation is much bigger market than exon 20 insertion) you don’t have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that pozi will bring in a significant amount of change to Spectrum’s coffers. Another way that I look at it is pozi in exon 20 insertion mutations is ~ 5.5% of the population whereas Xalkori is around 4% for the ALT mutation (i.e. that’s 37.5% more pts for pozi). Xalkori for the ALT mutation in NSCLC was approved in 2013 w sales growing 5.9% last year to $594M (note - it was approved ROS1 mutations in NSCLC in 2016).

So if you assume (yes, I know my mamma told me never to assume) that results will continue to be positive at WCLC 2018, will the share price be above $25? That is the question and I have placed my money that it will be.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4184986-can-spectrum-pharmaceuticals-continue-rally?dr=1

Edit - Mystery solved. He wrote 2 similar discussions on SPPI within 24hrs. The first was on the Seeking Alpha blog (link below) and the second is a SA article and this is where I commented (link above). When I initially checked to see if he responded, I went on the blog link. OK, he's back to being credible in my book.

https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/498952-bret-jensen/5181018-play-spectrum?isDirectRoadblock=true