BioAmber Inc fka BIOAQ

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Indications that they are getting a strategic buyer.

Fairly new 2.5 year old plant which is the largest capacity to make succinct acid in the world won't be dismantle for liquidation scraps.

October 2017
“I told management that Bioamber is worth more dead than alive.
Certainly someone will come in and potentially buy it. The logical buyer will be Cargill who essentially supplies the yeast technology for this business. Cargill spent hundreds of millions of dollars in developing this yeast. They got Cargill to allow them to use this. Cargill essentially can come in and buy the company. There are a bunch of other players in Asia that could be interested.”
Jerome Hass, portfolio manager at Lightwater Partners speaking on BNN Bloomberg Canada

January 2018
Corporate overview expected strong Q4 2017 revenues and claimed established relationships with CJ, PTTMCC (JV between PTT and Mitsubishi Chemicals), Mitsui, Cargill, Arlanxeo.

February 2018
Last February, Nextant indicated that a few companies investigating potential to produce their products in their Sarnia plant have already approached them. According to Nextant, key potential buyers with strategic interest in these products, and hence the Sarnia asset, include: BASF, DSM, Cargill, Lygos, Genomatica, Myriant / PTT, Deinove, Amyris, Invista, CJ, ADM, Corbion, and Evolva.

June 11, 2018
Generated many interested bidders and NDAs in a short time soon after SISP began. Potential buyers according to court monitor Pwc: DOW, Reverdia, BASF, Myriant / PTTMCC (JV between PTT and Mitsubishi Chemicals), Sumitomo, Mitsui, Exxon Mobil, Sinopec Chemical.

June 18, 2018
BioAmber Receives Favourable Court Ruling and Approval for DIP Financing. “The continuing operations of the Sarnia plant are crucial to maximize as much as possible the price that may be obtained from a buyer or an investor interested in the Sarnia plant. BioAmber has a number of strategic and financial investors evaluating an investment as part of the SISP. We are optimistic that the closing of a transaction will provide our customers long term supply assurance from the Sarnia facility.”

Study: There is an increase in realised returns to equity at the announcement of DIP loan agreements, which is positive and statistically significant. It is also found that DIP financed firms have a reduced probability of liquidation, and shorter time spent under bankruptcy proceedings.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/1468-5957.00398

June 20, 2018
Court monitor beliefs there will be 2-3 buyers according to m0n that heard him via call during latest court hearing tell the judge “we are looking for a buyer” and “we believe there will be 2- 3”

June 21, 2018
In a communication, CFO, Mario Settino seemed optimistic about the buyout process although he could not share details.

June 27, 2018
"There is value in the business and the Sarnia plant. I still see Cargill as a logical buyer."
Jerome Hass, portfolio manager at Lightwater Partners on email

June 29, 2018
Non-binding Intent to bid Letters due.

July 31, 2018
Final bidding offers due.

Answer this:
Is the business a total failure or have revenues been rising year after year?
Is the demand for succinct acid weak or strong?
Do they have active customers buying from them steadily?
Do they have partners interested in producing in Sarnia?
Are there other industries interested in the succinct acid market?
Have other companies been seeking to build new plants or expand?
Who will claim the difference from 5 cents to the possible 38 cents per share equity residual from the buyout?

Do you think that a fairly new and the largest succinct acid plant in the world will be dismantled for liquidation scraps after Canadian government has invested so much in that Sarnia industrial complex? Think about it.

So who could the buyers be?

Last February, Nextant indicated that a few companies investigating potential to produce their products in their Sarnia plant have already approached them. It wouldn't surprise me if the buyers the Monitor now beliefs will bid to buy them are the same that approached them before.

To give us a hint of who could the be the most probable, compare Nextant and Pwc lists of potential buyers they researched and look for the ones that coincide on both.

Potential buyers according to Nextant: BASF, DSM, Cargill, Lygos, Genomatica, Myriant, PTT, Deinove, Amyris, Invista, CJ, ADM, Corbion, Evolva

Potential buyers according to Pwc: DOW, Reverdia, BASF, Myriant, PTT, Sumitomo, Mitsui, Mitsubishi Chemical, Exxon Mobil, Sinopec Chemical

It turns out that there are exactly 3 matches from both lists. The same amount of buyers the monitor beliefs they will get. The matches are: BASF, Myriant, PTT

BASF
Although currently has the potential to manufacture bio-succinic acid, BASF's production capabilities is relatively small compared to other global players. Acquiring BioAmber could transform BASF into a serious contender in the biobased niche.

Myriant
Myriant is currently in the process of evaluating plan to build plants in key geographies across the globe for the production of bio-succunic acids and other high-value, green specialty chemicals in large established markets

PTT MCC
A JV between PTT and Mitsubishi Chemicals, was established to research, develop, manufacture and commercialize bio-based polymers. BioAmber could be vertically integrated within its supply chain.

Mitsubishi Chemicals
Mitsubishi Chemicals is currently pursuing organic and acquisition investments in biobased petrochemical alternatives through internal R&D and joint ventures. The firm has already demonstrated proven interest in bio- succinic acid through its partnership with BioAmber.
April 2011: BioAmber Partners with Mitsubishi Chemical in Succinic Acid
Feb 2018: Mitsubishi Chemical Starts Full scale Sales of New Grade of ‘DURABIO’ Bio-based Engineering Plastic for Bottles