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Re: Billiam_2 post# 18672

Friday, 10/20/2006 11:52:01 AM

Friday, October 20, 2006 11:52:01 AM

Post# of 35788
I think 10/18 was a hammer day and it was a rejection day.... it rejected the lows and did so with a good sized tail on the hammer, too. I'm not bothered by the volume that day for the simple fact that it was a rejection day (rejecting the lows & doing so firmly, I might add). If it had been a BAWC (Big Ass White Candle) day, that would have been a worry. (A BAWC day would have have both big volume and would have closed on the lows). Regarding hammers, it is called a hammer because it is said to be "hammering out a bottom". To quote Seiki Shimizu in his book "The Japanese Chart of Charts", page 74 "When a karakasa appears in a low price area it's regarded as a strong line and buying is suggested". By the way, karakasa is Japanese for paper umbrella.

Then yesterday was a doji and the vol was lighter. IE, the doji was indecision... the glass could be half full or half empty... but the very fact that the selling day was not followed thru on is what I see.... confirmation of the hammer: to quote Shimizu, "buying is suggested".

Now, back to the wording of your kind post itself, I frankly don't see the "going up lately on low volume" that you stated. You must be looking at it using something other than a daily chart.

In my opinion, spiras's post regarding Dale's rude email tells us that BIGN will "support" the stock somewhat. Now, I'd be surprised if they throw a lot of moolah at supporting it.

I hope you don't mind my thinking out loud, kind of "scripting the possible" to give it flesh & bones... Just a device to stimulate my thinking... not cast in concrete; shoot holes in it, thats kinda the idea... Here goes:
People who want to grab more to cost average down would have to first sell a good size chunk or two to convince people the sky is falling. MMs might collude to do this, who knows. Then, after some panic momentum begins, these same folks will be buyers. Like shaking the trees to gather whatever falls out. The folks doing this are gambling that BIGN and/or Tyche and/or Royal and/or Skip and/or Hydroslotter and/or WWNG will NOT PR anything because, if the bad actors got caught selling enough to stimulate doubt and any of the above parties steps in with a PR or two, then they just could be out those shares in a heartbeat and in so doing they could have blown a good portion of their anticipated profits. So, with BIGN telling us they are fully aware of the price dip and that they are not just sitting on their hands, that fact alone may inhibit the trap being baited by "false" selling that is designed to spook others.

My guess? The games may be over. They may shake the trees a few more times. My view? So what. Some folks on this and other boards have asked why people sell at low levels. I think this is exactly the reason: smart money spooks the weak hands into panic selling so their shares can be scooped up.

The one good thing about the anticipation of an upcoming barrage of PRs is that, the longer it looms out there as a distinct likelihood, the more of a gamble the above described "head fake" would be. Like I've said before, rather than cussing Lancaster, I'm enjoying watching the venture capitalists play their cards. By holding the news out there just below the horizon, at this point he is using it to increase the risk anyone wanting to spook the stock to scoop up cheap shares would have to take. The risks of them being caught with their pants down increased with the price action of 10/18 and the rude email to spiras. And thats the way I see it, man. And, as always, its just an opinion and I could very well be wrong.

GLTY

Should have previewed it:
The bad actors will have a budget as it were that they can employ, too. If they can spook people, they will do so and collect a bigger position in anticipation of good news. If people want to foil the MMs at their own game, they simply have to make a plan and stick to it.

I think there is news in spades coming, but who knows. Like I've said before, figuring out what is going on with this stock is like trying to assemble a jigsaw puzzle in a half dark room. So, trust the charts. Thats all I can say.

Imperial Whazoo

"Just my opinions, folks. Do your own due diligence & make your own decisions. DO NOT... I repeat... DO NOT make any investment decisions on my comments. They are my opinions. That's all they are... OPINIONS."