Saturday, June 16, 2018 11:35:32 AM
The big risk is if President Donald Trump's first strike in the tariff conflict is followed by counterstrikes by Beijing and others, such as Canada and the European Union, causing the disagreement to spin out of control and undermine investor and CEO confidence in the economy and markets.
"It's the indirect effect on confidence that matters," says Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at the New York offices of Barclays, a British bank.
There's a lot more at stake for consumers than price inflation at the cash register, Gapen says. It is far worse for them financially if the trade fight causes the economy to slow, businesses to stop hiring or start firing, and markets to suffer a sizable tumble that sets their retirement accounts back in a meaningful way. The trade spat could undo much of the economic good set in motion in December by the tax cuts.
Stocks initially swooned on the news Friday, with the Dow Jones industrial average falling as much as 281 points before paring some of its losses to close down 84 points for the day at 25,090.
"One of the most significant worries for the U.S. economy and markets is the possibility of a prolonged volley of threats and retaliation," says Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial.
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