Innovation Pharmaceuticals Inc (IPIX)

[PlentyParanoid]

George, it would be frivolous to do least squares fit on 3 real data points. But ...

Don't worry. I am not going to leave you empty handed. Below is historical PASI 75 response against sPGA 0 response for 65 psoriasis trial arms for which both responses have been reported.



You might remember me saying that prurisol phase 2b had sPGA 0 response of 10.7 % for 200 mg arm. That means 3 subjects out of 28 and at least 2 out of 3 in the baseline sPGA 3 group (19 subjects). That is hard to explain as a fluke against the observation that the largest historical sPGA 0 response for placebo so far is 1.8 %.

For the chart above I assumed that probable response range for scaled up trial would correspond to 2 to 4 sPGA 0 responses in prurisol 2a trial. That is the green area in the plot.

You are free to speculate along the lines: If about 10 % sPGA 0 response historically implies PASI 75 response in the range 30 to 60 %, then what might doubling that sPGA 0 response imply for PASI 75 response?

Good luck.