Saturday, June 09, 2018 5:16:20 PM
Anything can happen...I was just pointing at technical support levels...and suggest below 2100 S&P is big trouble...
Its up to the central Banks of the world on how crazy they want it to get...
1. I think the Euro and the nations that make up the EU are in trouble and may fall apart.
2. Our debt level has to be fixed...usually the currency gets devalued when you're not servicing the interest on the debt. That will cause inflation...without serious fixes you can get runaway inflation...aka...hyper inflation; could even get stagflation=slow or no growth economy with inflation (most say stagflation won't happen)...Being the reserve currency of the world has its issues= every time there's trouble in the world our currency goes UP... a strong currency right now isn't the best route to go...
3. China has a worse debt problem than we do...so my guess is we are more than a couple of years away from a real crisis with U.S. or China...it will be currency manipulation and trade wars for now.
4 Emerging Markets should be a good place to invest right now...but I don't see it being that great yet...
5. S&P 500 shouldn't have any problem reaching S&P 3000/3100 so down to 2100 would be a 1000 S&P point haircut...times 10= a 10,000 point haircut for the DOW...
If FED increases interest rates too fast it will slow the economy tooo much and so considering some of the world issues I wouldn't be surprised if the FED did nothing this week and suggested there is only one more rate increase this year. I say this because other countries are not tightening and we don't want to get too far ahead of these other countries...
Its up to the central Banks of the world on how crazy they want it to get...
1. I think the Euro and the nations that make up the EU are in trouble and may fall apart.
2. Our debt level has to be fixed...usually the currency gets devalued when you're not servicing the interest on the debt. That will cause inflation...without serious fixes you can get runaway inflation...aka...hyper inflation; could even get stagflation=slow or no growth economy with inflation (most say stagflation won't happen)...Being the reserve currency of the world has its issues= every time there's trouble in the world our currency goes UP... a strong currency right now isn't the best route to go...
3. China has a worse debt problem than we do...so my guess is we are more than a couple of years away from a real crisis with U.S. or China...it will be currency manipulation and trade wars for now.
4 Emerging Markets should be a good place to invest right now...but I don't see it being that great yet...
5. S&P 500 shouldn't have any problem reaching S&P 3000/3100 so down to 2100 would be a 1000 S&P point haircut...times 10= a 10,000 point haircut for the DOW...
If FED increases interest rates too fast it will slow the economy tooo much and so considering some of the world issues I wouldn't be surprised if the FED did nothing this week and suggested there is only one more rate increase this year. I say this because other countries are not tightening and we don't want to get too far ahead of these other countries...
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