NY Crude Oil Futures Summary Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | June 9, 2018
Analysis for the Week of June 11, 2018
WRITTEN VIEW PER THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jun. 8, 2018: NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 6574 and is trading up about 8.80% for the year from last year's closing of 6042. So far, we have been trading up for the past 3 days since the low made on Tue. Jun. 5, 2018. Looking at our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 8289 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 6371. This provides a 23% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 6955 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 5806. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 16%.
The last event was a low established during 2016.
A possible change in trend appears due come August in NY Crude Oil Futures so be focused. Last month produced a high at 7290 and so far, we have broken beneath last month's low 6580 closing yesterday at 6574. We now need to close beneath 6580 on a monthly basis to imply a technical reversal of trend to the downside for now. Since we are trading below that level, caution is advisable.
At this time, the market has closed on the Yearly level up 131.9% from the strategic low established during 2016, which has been a 1 year rally from that event.
Regarding the near-term level, the market has closed down 14% from the last cycle high established during 2017, which has been only a move from last year. Now turning to the long-term perspective, the market has closed on the Yearly level down 58.9% from the strategic high established during 2008, which has been a 9 year move.
Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is bearish providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bearish reflecting resistance forming at 6422.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of May 21st at 7290, which was up 48 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 19th. We have been generally trading down for the past 2 weeks, which has been a significant move of .1190% in a stark panic type decline.
Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of May 21st has been important closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 6955 made back during the week of April 16th. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the the week of January 22nd. This immediate decline has so far held the previous low formed at 4205 made the week of June 19th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. . Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 3 weeks overall.
At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. On the subject of the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 2 weeks. The last high on the weekly level was 7290, which was created during the week of May 21st. The last weekly level low was 4205, which formed during the week of June 19th, and only a break of 6551 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 6685 above the market.
Critical support still underlies this market at 5806 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend was moving up for 27 months before the recent decline. The last monthly level low was 2605, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 6181 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the monthly level was 7290, which was created during May. However, we still remain below key resistance 6630 on a closing basis.
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