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Friday, June 01, 2018 4:38:02 PM
Is Sell in May Working This Year?
By: Almanac Trader | June 1, 2018
To all the market seasonality naysayers and “Sell in May” or Best Six Months/Worst Six Months critics, we say thank you for your skepticism. Despite your disbelief (and perhaps because of it) the recurring seasonal market patterns highlighted in the Stock Trader’s Almanac continue to persist. Of course they are not perfect and do not work 100% of the time, and some have fallen by the wayside and some have shifted – we’ve tracked and updated those.
However, supported by a host of academic studies and papers (just Google them yourself) and now years of evidence-based results, our Tactical Seasonal Best & Worst Six Months Switching Strategy, a slightly more sophisticated version of “Sell in May and Go Away,” continues to outperform over the long and short term, 2017 notwithstanding. Yes the Worst Six Months (or “Sell in May”) was quite positive in 2017 and better than the Best Six.
This has happened before as it did in 2009 (Post Financial Crisis) and 2003 (Iraq war) and it will again. But that has not changed or tainted the seasonality, strategy or results. Just think back to how well the market and the Switching Strategy did following those years. And remember we are not talking about the plain vanilla “Sell in May” on May first (see page 52 of the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2018 for the results of our Best Six Months Switching Strategy using MACD Timing. Here are the results since 2009 to give you an idea.
So far since our Best Six Months Seasonal MACD Sell Signal for the Dow and S&P 500 the Dow is up about 2.1% and the S&P 500 is up about 2.6%. Definitely a solid move, but this has enabled us to take some profits and sell losers at favorable prices. And our defensive, risk-off bond positions in iShares 20+ Year Treasury (TLT) and iShares Core US Aggregate Bond (AGG) are up and on the rise as stocks have begun to weaken again as seasonality and midterm machinations begin to kick in.
http://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/174468208428/is-sell-in-may-working-this-year
• DiscoverGold
Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries
By: Almanac Trader | June 1, 2018
To all the market seasonality naysayers and “Sell in May” or Best Six Months/Worst Six Months critics, we say thank you for your skepticism. Despite your disbelief (and perhaps because of it) the recurring seasonal market patterns highlighted in the Stock Trader’s Almanac continue to persist. Of course they are not perfect and do not work 100% of the time, and some have fallen by the wayside and some have shifted – we’ve tracked and updated those.
However, supported by a host of academic studies and papers (just Google them yourself) and now years of evidence-based results, our Tactical Seasonal Best & Worst Six Months Switching Strategy, a slightly more sophisticated version of “Sell in May and Go Away,” continues to outperform over the long and short term, 2017 notwithstanding. Yes the Worst Six Months (or “Sell in May”) was quite positive in 2017 and better than the Best Six.
This has happened before as it did in 2009 (Post Financial Crisis) and 2003 (Iraq war) and it will again. But that has not changed or tainted the seasonality, strategy or results. Just think back to how well the market and the Switching Strategy did following those years. And remember we are not talking about the plain vanilla “Sell in May” on May first (see page 52 of the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2018 for the results of our Best Six Months Switching Strategy using MACD Timing. Here are the results since 2009 to give you an idea.
So far since our Best Six Months Seasonal MACD Sell Signal for the Dow and S&P 500 the Dow is up about 2.1% and the S&P 500 is up about 2.6%. Definitely a solid move, but this has enabled us to take some profits and sell losers at favorable prices. And our defensive, risk-off bond positions in iShares 20+ Year Treasury (TLT) and iShares Core US Aggregate Bond (AGG) are up and on the rise as stocks have begun to weaken again as seasonality and midterm machinations begin to kick in.
http://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/174468208428/is-sell-in-may-working-this-year
• DiscoverGold
Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries
Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Your Due Dilegence is a must!
• DiscoverGold
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