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The Philosopher's Stone-Recession Warning-Todays Kilauea Lava/\....stream

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The Philosopher's Stone - Recession Warning



Teach me, my God and King,
In all things Thee to see,
And what I do in anything
To do it as for Thee...

A servant with this clause
Makes drudgery divine:
Who sweeps a room as for Thy laws,
Makes that and the action fine.

This is the famous stone
That turneth all to gold;
For that which God doth touch and own
Cannot for less be told.

George Herbert, The Elixir


Today was one of those days in the market when a great deal seems to happen, but then by the close, there is little to show for it.

Stocks rallied early on fabulously on hopes that the China-US Trade discussions were going well. And then all that optimism collapsed under its own weight, and sent stocks to the lows of the day.

But by the close most everything was back again to nearly unchanged.

There will be a Comex precious metals option expiration on Thursday, that will likely be more significant for gold.

Perhaps this is why gold took such a gut shot to test the will of the longs this morning.

Earlier today I posted an indicator that suggests that the US may be falling into another economic recession. To see it click here.

It is *possible* that the tax cuts and other stimulus may do something to defer this risk. But given the strong bias in the cuts, and lack of a financial policy change to go with them, there may not be a significant impact on the real weekly income at the median level.

The money seems to continue to be directed to the top. And their spending does not provide sufficient stimulus to aggregate demand, especially when it is directed at more stock buybacks and increased predatory monopolies.

Have a pleasant evening.

















Decline to Negative In Personal Median Income Growth Precedes Economic Recessions - Recession Warning Now?

The data seems to indicate that a sharp decline in Real Median Personal Income to a negative growth year over year seems to precede an economic recession.

As for the causes of this correlation, one might well wonder. But given that the US economy tends to be consumption driven, a sharp decline in real median personal income would seem to be something worth considering.

And one might well ask, are we headed for that same experience today, with a broad slowing in aggregate demand because of a decline in growth of median income?

I am not happy that this is based on annual data. I would have been monthly, or at least quarterly.

Below this I also include a chart that shows the growth of average hourly wages of non-supervisory workers. I looked this up because of a minor debate going on between two popular media economists, Baker and Krugman, about the start of wage stagnation, whether it has been since 1980, or the last recession.

As always it seems, I was not able to find my exact desired data, which would have been median real wage growth in non-supervisory, non-salaried workers. But the case for 1980 as the start of stagnation seems rather good.

But I did stumble upon this phenomenon of declining personal income preceding recessions, which seems much more important, if true. So it was not a complete waste of time to pursue this quibble over whether we are at full employment now, and why wage growth is not yet appearing.





http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2018/05/decline-in-personal-median-weekly.html