Thursday, May 17, 2018 1:53:37 PM
THE STOCK IS SETUP FOR THIS RUN TO $4 BEING ONLY THE INITIAL STEP IN A MULTI-YEAR RALLY.
THE STOCK THOUGH STILL TRADES AT VERY CHEAP LEVELS AT $4 AND A DISCOUNT TO PEERS.
THE STOCK IS ON THE VERGE OF A BREAKOUT AT THIS LEVEL
ZYNGA NOW HAVING THE HIGHER FORECASTED GROWTH RATE
THE KEY INVESTOR TAKEAWAY IS THAT THE MARKET IS SLOWLY CATCHING ON TO THE ATTRACTIVE VALUATION OF ZYNGA
THE STOCK SHOULDN'T TRADE AT A SUBSTANTIAL EV/S DISCOUNT TO THESE INDUSTRY LEADERS
ZYNGA: FOREVER UNDERVALUED
MAY.17.18 | ABOUT: ZYNGA (ZNGA)
Stone Fox Capital
Long/short equity, growth at reasonable price, research analyst, Deep Value
Stone Fox Capital
(11,311 followers)
Summary
Zynga appears POISED TO BREAKOUT FROM RECENT RESISTANCE AT THE $4 LEVEL.
The mobile-game market remains in a bullish growth trend.
The company continues to execute on growing bookings from forever franchise games.
Forecasts for 9% revenue growth in 2019 surpasses industry leaders.
ZYNGA (ZNGA) IS QUIETLY APPROACHING MULTI-YEAR HIGHS on the back of strong execution that now produces consistent growth. Combined with solid growth forecasts for the mobile-game market, THE STOCK IS SETUP FOR THIS RUN TO $4 BEING ONLY THE INITIAL STEP IN A MULTI-YEAR RALLY.
Forever Franchises
The investment thesis on Zynga changed a while back as the mobile-game developer shifted the development model to more predictable updates and live services from a reliance on developing new hit games. The ability to produce consistent bookings growth from existing franchises like Words With Friendsand Zynga Poker de-risked buying the stock back when the Zynga traded below $3.
Source: Zynga Q1'18 shareholders letter
None of these games top the grossing game charts so growing is part of taking market share and participating in a growing mobile market. The mobile portion of the global game market is set to expand to $70 billion this year and reach over $100 billion by 2021.
SMARTPHONE GAMES HAVE ALREADY SURPASSED BOTH PC AND CONSOLE REVENUES PLACING ZYNGA IN AN IDEAL POSITION TO FINALLY BENEFIT FROM MARKET GROWTH.
Source: Newzoo
Zynga hasn't been perfect in execution as the social slots category saw mobile revenue dip 4% over last Q1. Mobile bookings were flat for this category, but the company still executed on 10% bookings growth YoY.
Guidance for Q2 bookings was $218 million, a solid jump from the $205 million estimate from last year. Zynga has a history of smashing internal estimates on bookings. The company beat the Q2 estimate last year by $4.2 million and smashed the Q1 estimate by $9.5 million. A similar beat this time would place Zynga at the highest level in years at possibly $225 million.
Easy Undervalued Argument
The argument now that ZYNGA IS GENERATING CONSISTENT PROFITS IS THAT THE STOCK IS UNDERVALUED FOR THE GAMING SECTOR. With bookings at just above $200 million per quarter, a big hit game could drive a spark in bookings growth providing a huge catalyst for the stock.
The thesis though is based on the company returning to growth in excess of industry leaders. Analysts forecast FY19 revenue growth for Activision (ATVI) and Electronic Arts (EA) below the growth rate of Zynga:
• Zynga - 9.1%
• Activision - 7.0%
• EA - 8.8%
Despite ZYNGA NOW HAVING THE HIGHER FORECASTED GROWTH RATE and the obvious logical conclusion that a new game could move the needle more at the smaller company, THE STOCK SHOULDN'T TRADE AT A SUBSTANTIAL EV/S DISCOUNT TO THESE INDUSTRY LEADERS.
ZNGA EV to Revenues (Forward) data by YCharts
Takeaway
THE KEY INVESTOR TAKEAWAY IS THAT THE MARKET IS SLOWLY CATCHING ON TO THE ATTRACTIVE VALUATION OF ZYNGA now that growth is more predictable. THE STOCK THOUGH STILL TRADES AT VERY CHEAP LEVELS AT $4 AND A DISCOUNT TO PEERS. Possibly even as important, THE STOCK IS ON THE VERGE OF A BREAKOUT AT THIS LEVEL that could SEND THE MOBILE-GAME DEVELOPER TOWARDS the 2014 highs of nearly $6.
Disclosure: I am/we are long ZNGA.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: The information contained herein is for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be taken as a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion or consult a financial advisor. Investing includes risks, including loss of principal.
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Source:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4175050-zynga-forever-undervalued
PREVIOUS POST BELOW
ZNGA: NOW OPEN TO TAKEOVER BIDS, UPGRADED $6.00, SPORTS BETTING IN WEEKS
EXPECT TO SEE LEGAL SPORTS BETTING IN COMING WEEKS, WILLIAM HILL US...
2 HOURS AGO
JOE ASHER, WILLIAM HILL U.S. CEO, DISCUSSES THE LATEST SUPREME COURT RULING THAT OPENS UP SPORTS BETTING ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
SEE VIDEO LINK BELOW:
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/05/15/expect-to-see-legal-sports-betting-in-coming-weeks-william-hill-us-ceo-says.html
ZYNGA (ZNGA) UPGRADED AT BIDASKCLUB
POSTED BY TATUM PEREGRIN ON MAY 14TH, 2018
BIDASKCLUB UPGRADED SHARES OF ZYNGA (NASDAQ:ZNGA) FROM A SELL RATING TO A HOLD RATING IN A RESEARCH REPORT REPORT PUBLISHED ON FRIDAY, MAY 4TH.
Several other analysts have also recently issued reports on ZNGA. Zacks Investment Research cut Zynga from a strong-buy rating to a hold rating in a research report on Saturday, January 13th. WEDBUSH SET A $6.00 PRICE OBJECTIVE ON ZYNGA AND GAVE THE STOCK A BUY RATING IN A RESEARCH REPORT
Source:
https://ledgergazette.com/2018/05/14/zynga-znga-raised-to-hold-at-bidaskclub.html
PINCUS' LATEST MOVE CAN IMPROVE ZYNGA'S LONG-TERM PROSPERITY
MAY. 6.18 | ABOUT: ZYNGA (ZNGA)
Motek Moyen
Event-driven, tech, value, momentum
I Know First
(4,652 followers)
Summary
MARK PINCUS HAS CONVERTED HIS FOUNDER SUPER-VOTING STOCKS TO ORDINARY STOCKS. HIS VOTING POWER IS NOW REDUCED FROM 70% TO 10%.
It is a generous gesture from Mr. Pincus. By giving up his super-voting/veto privileges, ZYNGA’S LONG-TERM STRATEGY IS NOW MORE FLEXIBLE.
PINCUS’ SACRIFICE MEANS ZYNGA IS NOW OPEN TO TAKEOVER BIDS. ZYNGA IS AN ATTRACTIVE M&A TARGET. IT IS PROFITABLE AND HAS NO DEBT with $740 million in cash.
I hope Zynga will consider porting some of its Android/iOS games to Facebook’s Instant Games platform. Facebook has enabled in-app purchases on its Instant Games Platform.
I am still long Zynga (ZNGA). This company posted excellent numbers on its Q1 2018 earnings report. In spite of not having a new hit game, Zynga still posted Q1 revenue of $208.2 million, up 7% year over year [Y/Y]. Mobile revenue is $182.6 million, up 13% Y/Y. Net income was $5.6 million - a big turnaround from Q1 2017’s net loss of $9.5 million. The all-important metric pertaining to the number of mobile average daily active users also increased 24% Y/Y to 23 million.
Source:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4170467-pincus-latest-move-can-improve-zyngas-long-term-prosperity
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