Tuesday, May 15, 2018 4:42:50 PM
Immune Design Nearing Critical Point In Valuation
May 11, 2018 3:03 PM ET|8 comments | About: Immune Design (IMDZ)
Clover Biotech Research
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4173012-immune-design-nearing-critical-point-valuation
Biotech, momentum, short-term horizon, event-driven Summary
Immune Design has been stagnant all year, but is nearing a critical point.
The company provided pipeline and financial first-quarter updates.
Immune Design is a compelling investment opportunity for risk-tolerant investors.
Immune Design (NASDAQ:IMDZ) is up 15% since I penned my thesis article in early February.
Overview
This immuno-oncology play has been virtually stagnant all year. This is despite a ridiculous amount of insider buys (akin to what took place with a similar company, ADAP) after the share price plummeted in October due to dilution and trial delays.
Its technicals now appear primed for significant appreciation in the near term:
Quarter 1 Clinical Updates
CMB305
The company's lead drug candidate, CMB305, is currently targeting two indications: monotherapy (awaiting phase 3 initiation) and combination (ongoing phase 2) for soft tissue sarcomas.
In March, Immune Design updated investors on its clinical prospects.
We had discussed CMB305 in the previous article, concerning the following data:
Source: Immune Design Corporate Overview, January 2018
Assessing the data, we proposed at the time:
Pazopanib, approved and marketed for soft tissue sarcomas, donned a median OS of 12.5 months. Meaning, after 12.5 months of treatment 50% of the patient cohort remained alive. To contrast, CMB305 at 18 months has an overall survival rate of 76.2%. The data suggests a major improvement over current treatment. The trial is ongoing to determine median OS.
Bear in mind, overall survival (OS) is the length of time from the start of treatment that half of the patients in a group of patients diagnosed with the disease are still alive.
In the update, Immune Design announced a 23.7-month median OS following CMB305 monotherapy. This is nearly an entire year improvement over current standard of care.
The company plans to initiate a phase 3 trial assessing CMB305 as maintenance therapy in synovial sarcoma patients.
G100
It also provided an update for G100 in treatment of follicular non-Hodgkin's lymphomas. The combination of G100 and pembrolizumab provided an ORR of 54% while the historical pembrolizumab ORR showed 11% in a separate study.
The company intends to discuss G100's future with the FDA.
First-Quarter Financial Updates
Immune Design ended the first quarter of 2018 with $131.0 million in cash and cash equivalents, short-term investments, and other receivables. Net loss for the latest quarter was $13.3 million. The company is funded into 2H 2020.
With a market cap of $180 million and $131 million in assets with no debt obligations, the market is valuing the entire pipeline for very little. Concerning the field (immuno-oncology) and the data, Immune Design seems very undervalued.
Lucky Seven Portfolio
We will initiate a buy in Immune Design at whatever the EOD price may be on 5/11 and add it to the Lucky Seven portfolio.
Risks
Immune Design has no or little means of revenue and, therefore, may resort to diluting to raise funds.
Shares may continue to fish for new bottoms. Timing "when to buy" may be difficult.
An investment in Immune Design may take a while to become profitable/may never become profitable.
Clinical data may disappoint.
The company may experience significant delays in advancing therapeutics through clinical trials.
Its share price movement is highly influenced by the overall biotech sector.
CMB305's viral vector was constructed from genetic sequences derived from HIV and may cause patients to test false positive for HIV. This may make patients reluctant to choose this therapy due to public's negative perception.
If its products are to ever reach the market, they will likely be met with larger competitions.
May 11, 2018 3:03 PM ET|8 comments | About: Immune Design (IMDZ)
Clover Biotech Research
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4173012-immune-design-nearing-critical-point-valuation
Biotech, momentum, short-term horizon, event-driven Summary
Immune Design has been stagnant all year, but is nearing a critical point.
The company provided pipeline and financial first-quarter updates.
Immune Design is a compelling investment opportunity for risk-tolerant investors.
Immune Design (NASDAQ:IMDZ) is up 15% since I penned my thesis article in early February.
Overview
This immuno-oncology play has been virtually stagnant all year. This is despite a ridiculous amount of insider buys (akin to what took place with a similar company, ADAP) after the share price plummeted in October due to dilution and trial delays.
Its technicals now appear primed for significant appreciation in the near term:
Quarter 1 Clinical Updates
CMB305
The company's lead drug candidate, CMB305, is currently targeting two indications: monotherapy (awaiting phase 3 initiation) and combination (ongoing phase 2) for soft tissue sarcomas.
In March, Immune Design updated investors on its clinical prospects.
We had discussed CMB305 in the previous article, concerning the following data:
Source: Immune Design Corporate Overview, January 2018
Assessing the data, we proposed at the time:
Pazopanib, approved and marketed for soft tissue sarcomas, donned a median OS of 12.5 months. Meaning, after 12.5 months of treatment 50% of the patient cohort remained alive. To contrast, CMB305 at 18 months has an overall survival rate of 76.2%. The data suggests a major improvement over current treatment. The trial is ongoing to determine median OS.
Bear in mind, overall survival (OS) is the length of time from the start of treatment that half of the patients in a group of patients diagnosed with the disease are still alive.
In the update, Immune Design announced a 23.7-month median OS following CMB305 monotherapy. This is nearly an entire year improvement over current standard of care.
The company plans to initiate a phase 3 trial assessing CMB305 as maintenance therapy in synovial sarcoma patients.
G100
It also provided an update for G100 in treatment of follicular non-Hodgkin's lymphomas. The combination of G100 and pembrolizumab provided an ORR of 54% while the historical pembrolizumab ORR showed 11% in a separate study.
The company intends to discuss G100's future with the FDA.
First-Quarter Financial Updates
Immune Design ended the first quarter of 2018 with $131.0 million in cash and cash equivalents, short-term investments, and other receivables. Net loss for the latest quarter was $13.3 million. The company is funded into 2H 2020.
With a market cap of $180 million and $131 million in assets with no debt obligations, the market is valuing the entire pipeline for very little. Concerning the field (immuno-oncology) and the data, Immune Design seems very undervalued.
Lucky Seven Portfolio
We will initiate a buy in Immune Design at whatever the EOD price may be on 5/11 and add it to the Lucky Seven portfolio.
Risks
Immune Design has no or little means of revenue and, therefore, may resort to diluting to raise funds.
Shares may continue to fish for new bottoms. Timing "when to buy" may be difficult.
An investment in Immune Design may take a while to become profitable/may never become profitable.
Clinical data may disappoint.
The company may experience significant delays in advancing therapeutics through clinical trials.
Its share price movement is highly influenced by the overall biotech sector.
CMB305's viral vector was constructed from genetic sequences derived from HIV and may cause patients to test false positive for HIV. This may make patients reluctant to choose this therapy due to public's negative perception.
If its products are to ever reach the market, they will likely be met with larger competitions.
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