HCV world-wide sales for 1Q17, 4Q17, 1Q18 and all of 2107:
--------1Q17-------/------4Q17------/------1Q18-------/-------2017-------
GILD -2,576 - 76.2% / 1,498 - 63.4% / 1,046 - 49.9% / 9,137 - 73.2%
BMY - 162 - 6.3% / 59 - 2.5% / 0 - 0% / 406 - 3.3%
ABBV - 263 - 7.8% / 510 - 21.6% / 919 - 43.8% / 1,274 - 10.2%
MRK - 378 - 14.7% / 296 - 12.5% / 131 - 6.25% / 1,660 - 13.3%
TOTAL - 3,379 / 2,361 / 2,096 / 12,477
Overall market revenue down 38% YOY, but "only" ~11% QOQ. Annual run-rate now at ~$8.4B. I am expecting about $7.5-7.8B for '18 - worse reduction on percentage basis than '16-'17, due primarily to pricing reductions.
BMY gone from the WW market. MRK had net sales only OUS. ABBV had ~64% of its revenue OUS - much more than anyone has had before. GILD US sales have held up better than expected, but OUS sales are now significantly less than ABBV. US market continues significant decrease in revenue, but scripts have not resumed significant decreases yet. ABBV taking more share in US, but OUS is vastly more important to it, and there is no visibility as to existence or extent of continued OUS growth. I would expect one or two more quarters of OUS growth for ABBV, but not to same extent as 1Q18. But the most important question of "stable" sales number is not known (and probably not knowable). Do ABBV/GILD have more pricing power with BMY and MRK not in market, and no competitors on horizon? Or is the "cure" market fundamentally different from other drug pricing markets? I am no longer willing to bet that this is a $10B or even $7B WW market after '18. Others I'm sure will come out differently.
JMO.
AI
