if you owned itmn an they turned down 20 or 30 million up front for and a parnership with Roche would you have been upset?
I am an ITMN shareholder and I would have been upset if they accepted just 60 million up front! Its not the up front but the whole package (in my book) and I don't know the royalty rate and when the milestones are payable to say for sure. One would assume the rate is mid 20% outside the US and if they opt out of co-promote the same neighborhood US and that they receive a big chunk in milestones at approval/first commercial sale. Some reasons why I like it and why I don't think Roche overpaid.
1-Roche has access to a compound estate not just 191 (I believe the company reported 5 compounds in a prior call when 191 was unnamed).
2-Look at some of the deals done at various stages and payments along with what stage the compounds were at and I don't think its too high. Once they filed the CTA it took a lot of risk off the table. InterMune had said they could have done 2 deals at the preclinical stage BUT were not on the terms of a Phase 1+ deal which is what we were looking for. Could Roche have felt a little heat to do it sooner rather then later? Maybe, but the 60 million up-front isn't as high as some of the other deals so I think it is fair.
3-Its not like InterMune doesn't know a thing or two about HVC! Infergen (Interferon alfacon-1 also known as consensus interferon) is used in HCV (primarily PEG failures). Not only was it sold by InterMune for a couple years (before selling it to Valiant) but the co-inventor is Dr. Larry Blatt who is now CSO at InterMune and no doubt had a big role in its development. Plus the development took more of a rational drug design; they didn't just "luck in" to the compound. I think Roche saw a lot of data and science behind the compounds.
4-As a former ENZN shareholder, I saw Roche come in and really eat up PEG-Intron. (Now) I can give them credit for doing a good job against SGP and since SGP (along with JNJ/Vertex) are in this market and if all 3 are successful ITMN/Roche would be 3rd so a track record in coming late and gaining market leadership helps (and many consider Pegasys equivalent to PEG-Intron, 191 could very likely have several advantages over the other 2 PI's).
5-It appears combination therapy (with a PEG) will be prevalent for a number of years. Schering will push PEG-Intron with their PI obviously... Roche will push Pegasys and VX-950???
OK I can't sleep either maybe I can think of a good quiz? Well actually I have been curious about something but don't know the answer for sure to make it a quiz (maybe someone else does?) I was curous what the most expensive drugs on the market.
My guess is Cerazyme, Naglazyme, Aldurazyme, Remodulin. Anyone else know for sure?
