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:::: S&P 500 Index Cash Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | May 5, 2018

Analysis for the Week of May 7, 2018

WRITTEN OPINION AS OF THE CLOSE Fri. May. 4, 2018: S&P 500 Cash Index closing today of 266342 so far is trading down about 0.38% for the year from last year's closing of 267361. So far, we have been trading up for the past day since the low made on Thu. May. 3, 2018. Relying on our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 267964 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 258588. This provides a 3.49% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 329920 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 244654. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 25%.

The last event was a low established during 2016.

Focusing on our timing models, it is possible to see a turning point come this month in S&P 500 Cash Index. Remember to stay on point given this possible development ahead. Last month produced a low at 255380 and so far, we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 271749 to 255380. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.

Looking at the near-term level, the market has closed up 47.7% from the last cycle low established during 2016, which has been only a 1 year rally from that event. Turning to the long-term perspective, the market has still closed on the Yearly level up 4286.5% from the strategic low established during 1974, which has been a 43 year rally from that key event.

Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is neutral providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is neutral while the cyclical strength indicator is bullish providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.

On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of February 5th at 253269, which was down 2 weeks from the high made back during the week of January 22nd. We have been generally trading down for the past 2 weeks, which has been a moderate move of .0452% in a stark panic type decline.

Looking at this from a broader perspective, this current rally into the week of April 16th reaching 271749 has failed to exceed the previous high of 280190 made back during the week of March 12th. We have seen only a minor reaction rally from the last low for the past week. A break of the last low will warn of a continued decline ahead. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 255380. Resistance is to be found starting at 267575. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 1 week overall.

At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Regarding the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 2 weeks. The last high on the weekly level was 271749, which was created during the week of April 16th. The last weekly level low was 253269, which formed during the week of February 5th, and only a break of 261267 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. However, we still remain above key support 258589 on a closing basis.

Critical support still underlies this market at 244654 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Overall on a broader basis, looking at the monthly level on our models, this market has been in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 26 months. The last monthly level low was 181010, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 258589 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the monthly level was 287287, which was created during January.

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