WOW! My post below just disappeared from KERX Yahoo board.
@Dave You posted the following in 3 separate posts..
1)“People need to understand that the average premium of a bio buyout is about 30-40%. Not 300-400%. It happened once with IDIX, it’s not a template.” ——
2) “Btw, what does Abrams shorting have to do with Baupost? Don’t understand your mention in your post. Fred, think about it. Think.”——
3) “Fred, The short is a churn of which about 50 % is truly exposed. So let’s say 10M shirts not hedged for argument sake. Really not that much in this grand scheme. I don’t know the exact players (well some) but I can tell you that a shop shorting down from 18 doesn’t need the convertible note hand shake. You should be able to figure out who some of the early shorts were by looking at recent fund activity. That’s why I think Abrams is or was a candidate.”
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Forget IDIX ——Look, Dave, what you and others need to understand is value of Auryxia/Fexeric - not buyout premium over an artificially depressed stock price resulting from a scheme, for years, involving a short assault purposely directed and with the intent to sabotage development of company’s worth/market cap, IMO. Also, IMO, scheme involved affecting other aspects of company’s development i.e. sales development. In 2015, 2016, and 2017 COMBINED, Renvela sales of $3 billion, Auryxia sales of $92.8 million, roughly equating to Revela sales in 5 weeks - NO DOUBT, more here than meets the eye.
You want to talk about buyout premium of small bio? How about fairly recent buyout of small bio, not only fairly recent but directly comparable to Keryx..
(“Galenica to Buy Relypsa for $1.53 Billion, offers $32 per share, 59% above Relypsa’s close”) Sooo..
1 - Your average 30-40% premium is highly subjective, not a template. But meet halfway, not 40% and not 60%, settle at 50%.
2- At this juncture, the true value of KERX’s stock price is NOT $4.60. Six (6) months “hostage” in $4s following IDA approval, down from $6s day of approval ($6s also depressed)? Give me a friggin break, CRIMINAL. IMO, KERX’s stock price should be at $12-$13, and that’s only because of O/S including conv. notes which, btw, includes some 70 million shares issued in past 4 years with proceeds of some $550M. Proceeds employed in development of ALL Auryxia/Fexeric groundwork i.e. clinicals, payor coverage, marketing programs, industry sponsorships, conferences, nice 27,300 renovated, sq. ft office, org. structure of 200+ headcount, salaries, bonuses, free shares over years etc etc etc $550 built-in. So what does 50% premium of $12-$13’equate to? That be $20 - if you want to talk buyout premium.
As for Abrams shorting, short is a churn, and hand shakes, forget all that mumbo jumbo. The fact of matter is short scheme employed, for years, to hurt company - period. Who’s been behind scheme? Well, evidently, entity or entities interested in hurting company - that simple.
ALL, in my opinion..
