While I don't think $40's impossible, I believe my prior estimates were over $20 would be a good year.
I just listened to the quarterly conference call and found it interesting that now when speaking about a partnership for IMGN853, they're speaking specifically about Europe, and generally agreeing with the questioner that they'd get the best offer by waiting for the data from the Phase 3 Trial, which to me is a confident stance, and also seems to support the fact that they're thinking about not partnering at all, they're studying keeping Europe, and it sounds like the ROW for themselves.
Long term, the profit from keeping the drug to themselves would seem to be tempting, especially if earlier trials for other drugs appear promising. Certainly the short term costs of keeping the drug would mean needing additional funds to establish the capability of supporting such an effort. Of course I also believe that much of this could be done with contracts, rather than actually establishing sales and distribution personnel all over the world themselves. I believe they already have contracted manufacturing support for the drug, so that's not an added in house expense.
I believe that after positive Phase 3 results and the anticipation of approval the ROW partnership should be worth billions, plus substantial royalty numbers. If they don't take that money, however, it may not take to long before they're routinely earning billions themselves. It's a pay me now or pay me later situation, short term the ROW is favorable, but long term keeping the drug, especially if it won't be long before other drugs join it in world wide distribution, it may be smarter to not make partnerships but rather establish collaborations where they have the option to take over as more products with the IMGN label come into the market.
Gary
