The unexpected wrinkle is FXE, with significant correlations to SPY and GLD.
FXE is just starting the downleg of a 96week cycle, to bottom late this summer. Potential low is 108. This significant drop, if it occurs, could make the drop in GLD more severe than generally expected and make the weakness in SPY pronounced.
Caution is warranted, as existing support/resistance areas may be a mirage if the move in FXE occurs. Entering on reversals at cyclical turning points may be the best and safest choice of strategies.
Oddlot
Stay on the right side of the cycle!