BTCS Inc (BTCS)

[Watcher411]

It's a little more than just indicators that factor into my plays. I use a number of things to make a decision. Many times I can make a winning play, but sometimes I leave a little on the table, which I'm fine with. A win is still a win. My goal, is to have more shares than the original play started with, and pull a little off the table here and there. I currently play with a 0.0 cost basis, and I highly recommend to work your way to this. Half of the battle, is getting over the fear of loss, and the greed of wanting more. Overcome this, and you've won half of the battle. Take the emotions out of the equation, as you should want to be equally for, and against the entire trade situation. Walk the middle of the road. You help to do this, by pulling your initial investment out and play on the houses money.

Obviously, to begin, I want to find a ticker that actually trades with respectable volume, and has a history of patterns.

Next, I want to know where the price of bitcoin is, and how likely we are to approaching a near term top. I'll toss on one or two of my youtube favorites for their perspective as well. I don't believe we are in a full on reversal for BTC. We just aren't there yet in my opinion, so its best to try and identify about where this will lose steam. What I was happy to recently discover, was how closely these stocks are now tied to the price, as they weren't so much in the past. This makes this more useful.

Second, GBTC tends to track BTC rather well. So I want to be aware of what that stock is showing. Today, it approached both the 50 day, as well as the upper bollinger band simultaneously, and it did indeed push higher with a powerful hammer signal. As I type this, bitcoin has reached 8800 heading into Friday evening. Two points to make...

1. Bollinger bands typically contain 95% of all trading, and they usually bounce from one extreme to the next. They have the ability to ride the bands, but that's more the exception than the normal.

2. Bitcoin has shown many times the ability to close Friday 4pm low (or high), and then completely reverse before Monday. Massive gains made Friday evening, may turn into a down day Monday, because the algorithms sold off Monday morning at 1am. Etc... We have zero control over a mechanism that trades 24/7, so we must anticipate.

Third, I want to be aware of the chart indicators. I like to use two sets of RSI, and then a MACD, Slow and Fast STO, AROON, Vortex, Ichimoku Cloud, and MFI (money flow indicator). Additionally, all moving averages 5 through 200 are always on my screen. With exception to standard RSI, and MACD, which is only trend, all the other indicators are showing overbought, by a lot. They need a rest, or one very soon. With the RSI still not there, sure it could still move higher, but this is just one side of the cube I'm looking at.

Fourth, I want to go back into the history of the chart, and try and find a repeat scenario. Do we have one? Not exactly, but yes close. You can see this if you look on a 14 month chart. While it doesn't walk in lockstep, it does somewhat rhyme.

Fifth, I'd like to offer an alternative way of thinking. This image is a little crude, but imagine all the blue lines I show in the chart below, are nice s-shaped curves. Envision, this pattern playing out without all of the extremes. These extremes, are designed to earn money, mislead and/or shake people out. These extremes, are not part of the normal flow of the pattern, which is why they are temporary extremes. If we look to the right of the chart, I've placed a green line where we have potential for a double top. Is it possible a reverse is due? Well I see many things telling me yes. Might we push further? Maybe. But, I get the feeling that we are in the ninth inning of the game, only for this moment of the run.

https://ibb.co/mhx9HS


Sixth, timing. Look at the past major peak to peak action. Usually this works out to be around a 3-4 month time frame. It's worthwhile to identify peak to peak, or peak to valley time frames, to locate some kind of pattern for observation.

So, as you can see things aren't so clean and clear. It involves a number of factors. If you are unfamiliar with any indicator, take up learning about one every day or two, until you've found a number you like to use. It's only one tool in your toolbox, but there are other factors you can use to identify how you might make your play.

Lastly, for the record, I sold out today at the tip of the run today, anticipating a pull back. I have envisioned the possibility that this might, might, and again I stress "might" run the bollinger bands Monday or Tuesday, as I can envision this to occur like it had done in the past, but that pattern is "only" somewhat similar today. There's no guarantee it repeats, and BTC price will dictate what occurs next. I like the sure things, the sure profits. Should it slingshot Monday, it would be to an absolute extreme, making it easy for me to troubleshoot where we go next. Otherwise, I think I played it correctly, played it safe and took the guaranteed profit. I want to see extremes, as it makes the next play very easy to call.

While this all may seem complex, hopefully there's a little nugget of information into how I like to compile my information. I hope it helps somewhat.


Finally, again I must say I don't offer any financial advice. I'm not trying to tell anyone how to trade. Everyone is responsible for their own investment choices, but I can offer some insight to the ideas in which I think I see. Please don't take anything I say as accurate or certain without your own DD.