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Mid-month or end-of month April peak? It likely depends on earnings.
By: Almanac Trader | April 17, 2018

Digging deeper into the historical performance of April reveals two distinctly different patterns. This was first noted last week in a post titled “Key Inflection Point in Midterm Seasonal Pattern Approaching.” In that post, three annual patterns were compared and mid-April was identified as a key point as that was where the three patterns began to noticeably diverge and head in opposite directions. Today’s focus is on just April.

This April’s market performance, through the close of trading yesterday, is represented in the first chart below. In the second chart is April’s historical performance over the last 21-year period and in the third chart is April’s historical performance in midterm years since 1950.







Although the magnitude of this year’s daily moves has exceeded historical averages, the choppy nature of the first half of April this year is reasonably consistent with the choppiness that exists in the recent 21-year Performance and Midterm April Performance. The key difference between the 21-year chart and Midterm Aprils is where the markets reach a peak in the month.

The vertical black lines represents today, the 12th trading day of April. In past Midterm year Aprils, the market has reached a peak on either the 14th or 15th trading day while during the recent 21-year period the peak has arrived around the 20th trading day. Small-caps, represented by the Russell 2000 however, peaked earlier on the 15th trading day.

Provided today’s early gains hold, DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ will have reclaimed their respective 50-day moving averages. If they can hold and build upon current gains in the near-term while earnings continue to come in strong, this April could easily finish with strength and track the pattern of the most recent 21-years.

http://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/173033420103/mid-month-or-end-of-month-april-peak-it-likely

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