@AnfuhrerMitwut Left me thinking with your potential extended timeframe. Here’s a follow-up to my original reply to your post, a tangled one at that, thinking outloud, here it goes..
Going back to my post, extended timeframe, don’t see it, things need to start happening NOW, probably already happening, can’t wait, time of essence, hence, my going out on a limb sating something in the cards around the corner. Why 5 months, into month 6, “hostage” scenario, has to be for a reason, a pre-cursor sorta speak. In other words, if your extended timeframe is
in the cards, why “hostage” scenario now and not later, closer to end game.
BUT, there is one caveat, a provision if you will, a hypothetical scenario, when considering your potential extended time frame. The extended timeframe, say 9 months, would serve as going-it-alone “smoke and mirrors”, calculated play, prior to OFFICIAL end game implementation - I’ll explain.
Regardless of a potential extended timeframe, say 9 months, Renvela generics out, competition fierce (i.e. Vifor Fresenius), time of essence, again, reason for my comment, “needs to happen now, probably happening now”. So, Auryxia extended IDA approval in place, Feraheme extended IDA approval in place, potential critical news around the corner for Triferic which finally sets TRUE commercialization in play (need to have been following Triferic’s story to understand what I’m referring to).
So, Auryxia and Feraheme ready (remember Helen Milton, VP Regulatory Affairs, at Keryx for Auryxia IDA sNDA, then switched to AMAG for Feraheme IDA sNDA). TRUE commercial roll-out of Auryxia and Feraheme “re-launch” with extended IDA label happening NOW, each under their own separate umbrellas, but connected, just that connection is “extra-official”, for now. Remember, Keryx Corporate Counsel, Brian Adams, gone - but you have AMAG’s Joseph Vittiglio, ex-boss of Adams at Aveo Pharma. Keryx VP Sales, Tony Chambers, gone - but you have AMAG’s Tony Casciano and Nicholas Grund, both ex-SNY, worked in SNY same timeframe as Keryx’s BOD Director Daniel Regan, Keryx’s CEO Greg Madison (also ex-AMAG), and Keryx’s CFO, Scott Holmes, not ex-SNY, but ex-AMAG as well. Connecting dots! So, again, TRUE commercial roll-out of Auryxia/Feraheme “re-launch” happening NOW. All comes together (including Triferic), OFFICIALLY, in say 9 months, so goes the caveat, extended timeframe aka going-it-alone “smoke and mirrors”, calculated play. But again, TRUE Auryxia roll-out happening NOW, time of essence, reason why manuf. agreements in place, 210 head count with 50+ organizational structure a la Big Pharma, expanded offices, hiring of 2 senior execs, etc. All the while, SNY “backdrop”, also “extra-officially”, while advancements take place. Factor-in, Fexeric EU approval expiring Sept. 23, 2018. EU partnership, again, SNY “backdrop”, waiting to “officialize”. All part of a calculated play and ONLY WAY to explain a potential extended timeframe aka going-it-alone “smoke and mirrors”. Why ONLY WAY to explain? - because, again, time of essence, can’t wait.
Now, as per poster Olorin, spoke with SNY IR, asked about SNY renal division downsizing/phase-out due to Renvela generics. SNY IR said topic may be addressed in upcoming quarterly cc on April 27th. So let’s see if SNY addresses - SNY has practically said ZILCH since Renvela sales started taking BIG hit from generics some 9 months ago (???). There’s also the variable of SNY fetching $2-$2.5 billion for its EU generics unit, Zentiva, expected to come to frution 3Q218. Also, let’s see what happens with Keryx’s 2018 Annual Meeting and date of such - proxy statement should be out momentarily, no??
So, here’s the potential extended timeframe “hidden inner workings” of going-it-alone “smoke and mirrors”, hypothetically speaking. As we know, despite mgt. bold statements of IDA launch and commercial roll-out preparations nearly a year ago, and IR recently stating, “preparing almost 2 years for IDA launch” (as per “hooligan” Yoshka/gwells), supposedly, scripts #’s not showing uptick. Well, suddenly, Auryxia sales/scripts #’s start to show a meaningful uptick and market penetration “magically” proceeds. This would serve as a calculated play directed at justifying and leaving the ugly past behind as follows, “it took longer than expected but it’s finally happening” haha. In other words, extended timeframe would serve to distance the past, address and deal with with “a plan” potentially being exposed and the need to “bury” such exposure via extended timeframe, say 9 months, aka going-it-alone “smoke and mirrors”. Further dilution withheld (i.e. execution of remaining $72.3M supplement), work with existing cash position, all part of “hidden inner workings”. In the end, same difference, all goes back to “a plan”, IMO, AMAG/RMTI, under umbrella SNY, embedded within. In other words, “extraofficially”, under the radar if you will, things happening NOW, under separate roofs, but all comes together and made “official” following potential extended timeframe.
It would potentially also buy time to further “shake-out” retail, in all 3 companies btw, KERX, AMAG, and RMTI, in pursuit of deep ownership by the “powers”, say 85%. Would buy time for sudden scripts #’s uptick, hence, uptick in pps, say $6s or $7s or $8, prompting retailing selling, weak hands, scared hands, that want out. After all, “powers” have been loading-up at dirty cheap “hostage” prices for months, serting-up a low cost basis prior to gobbling-up retail weak hands at $6s, or 7s or $8s, no?? Btw, concerning “shake-out” of retail, IMO, this forum has recently shown much activity geared towards prompting retail selling. Such is why you read posts a la scare tactics, fabricated negative scenarios, and promoting underlying notion that Auryxia is not making progress, that IDA addtl. indication is not the “panacea” that it was thought be, etc. IMO, all distort and deceive tactics - Auryxia is a WINNER, stock should be $10+ with IDA approval.
But, again, there’s the other side of the coin, 5 months, going into month 6, hostage” scenario. Why now, why the need for “machinations” starting with Nov. 7, 2017 with guidance withdrawal coinciding with IDA aporoval followed by “hostage” scenario. Why now and not later, closer to end game, if extended scenario in the cards. Has to be for a reason, a pre-cursor sorta speak. Reason why my going out on a limb, that something in the cards around the corner, maybe Keryx/AMAG alliance of sorts, potential change of name, Nasdaq Institutional Report of May 15th void, so as not to reveal machinations that have taken place in past months vis a vis “hostage” scenario.
Just thinking outload, looking at all possible angles.
ALL IMO
AI
