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Re: BidnessMan post# 256863

Tuesday, 04/10/2018 1:57:23 AM

Tuesday, April 10, 2018 1:57:23 AM

Post# of 290030
Some very interesting points.....and some very serious responses....


I think if I was a young man with a top tier school's MBA or similar business/finance degree the last place I'd look for a position is in this industry until some sanity is injected into the atmosphere.

I really do not see that until after November. I know we may set higher floors through that time because of all the great changes to the foot print coming but we may also see unsettling drops (Opportunities) during the lulls.

I may be wrong and events come sooner. There is certainly an feeling of a taunt rubber band being stretched.

You worried about the increased anti-legalization rhetoric. I'd guess the closer we get the louder it will get.



Worried? Well, let's be clear about something; That's my job lol. (Seriously)......

I'm the one who spends every waking moment focusing on "worse case scenarios"...how to position, risk management, and so on....

That being said?, I wear several hats.....One has to answer to investors, partners and clients responsibly...Another has to focus on operations consistently performing (and out performing)..

Yet another hat...is that old, dirty, dusty, nasty hat that's decades old.... ;)...meaning I've seen it all...(I've actually lost sizable operations that were 100% (state) compliant...and let me tell you........20+ years in (to the state legal game), dozens of med states, almost a dozen rec states, and more about to drop was not the case the last 20 years......(different administrations, aggressive actions, etc)...

Addressed before but not lately:
We are now in a time and place which has found state governments and their officials rushing to defend their cannabis programs/the will of the people..the media embracing the very same like never before in history...not one, but now 2 of the most pro cannabis governors in the history of the nation and industry...

The majority of which did not exist and wasn't the case even 24 months ago, let alone 36...

As discussed last year......Nevada drops (adult use) that much harder (Sandoval was the most firm on his rejection of any fed directives).......California has now done the same......Massachusetts shortly.......New Jersey working on it as we speak, and yet a half dozen more or less preparing for November and beyond...

The further we go, the harder it is......

Additional points:
I've believed personally the cannabis issue was merely another negotiating point of current administration. They have been fairly quick to act in many unpopular ways and matters, and as addressed last year, Sessions himself stated (Sandoval, Hickenlooper meeting) "you haven't seen us do anything have you"?...

Cole issue?......people forget they actually did not remove "protections" per se as much as shift that to the judgement of the States (AG's)....

While many panicking about the Cole, Treasury Department has made it very clear their (FinCEN/BSA) guidance remains in effect, and that DoJ did not consult with them, nor does Treasury Secretary agree...

What I find very odd is the President has avoided the issue. (Yes, "The President", I don't get into political nonsense...He's there, and not going anywhere, and we have to deal with it, exactly how we have the past 20-30 years, as above........)

2-3 years ago?.....I'd be very concerned......but given the progress made, and those who now embrace that which even 2 years ago the same ran from...

Now, something else overlooked (and touched on long ago) is while many non industry might think an action here and there and everyone runs?

Yeah.....maybe a little education on the industry and those within it ;)......There would be lines of people as far as the eye can see lining up to take the fall....(principle(s), clog up court systems, utilize media attention, etc......)...I know more people that would stand up, fight, and take the fall then would not..

I always held such with the highest respect...and have over many years probably spent several million out of my own pocket trying to help and support such......but I'm not...I'm a "fight another day/How can you help anyone if in prison" kind of guy....(ie: I have "too many mouths to feed", etc...

Lengthy explanation?...yes, but I think might provide many aspects people may not be aware of or consider....

This isn't the first time industry has been in jeopardy.....but it is the first time it has had the support it does.

Me personally?....too far in/too deep per se to do anything but move forward....so in that sense, my entire life (literally) is a bet on "well be fine" ;)....

That being said......non industry....new industry....not surprised they get a little skittish.... ;)......

Politically, this could have all been an "ongoing test", and I don't think they anticipated the degree of pushback they have received and encountered ;)...(24 hours of Spicers original statement virtually every governor responded they would not comply with any actions against...and it has just grown, and the movement per se continues to at an even more rapid pace than ever before.......(Come November, one could take a look at what has occurred only in the past 24 months and be amazed......)

As last year (pre Nevada)....any and every day that goes by just increases activities (states) and support as well....

Call was very interesting....I thought pursuing medical NJ significant as that will happen shortly (they're working on it as we speak), and idea positioning for adult use and exactly what I would do....various things arising, and , again, the other company with the valuation discussed?....I have intimate knowledge of aspects of their back end (which I cannot, would, nor will not share), and that valuation is absolutely laughable. NJ (TRTC) gets done and they're nothing....

Note: Pete Sessions also up for November, so.....and may very well lose.

Yep....that was a little long winded.....but possibly of interest and use to someone.....20+ years (U.S industry)...believe me.....we've known more fear and chaos than not lol...

We get to November and they haven't made a move, they're not going to....(political strategy, negotiation, etc....)

In closing.....I'm pretty comfortable with where they're at, execution, values (low is welcome to accumulate, and know highs as always...) I think as previous NJ will be quicker than most believe and catch many off guard, as well as various other aspects...

Last note:
November......this month aside (moving fast, half done) it's 4 months from now...which at least to me, my lifestyle, "my world".......that's a quick nap LOL....."blink of an eye".....(I'm a little older and play the "long game" (in life)......

November's "almost here", and will be before we know it ;).....

It's too personal to be business.