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:::: S&P 500 Index Cash Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | April 7, 2018

Analysis for the Week of April 9, 2018

OUR ANALYTICAL OPINION AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Apr. 6, 2018: S&P 500 Cash Index closing today of 260447 so far is trading down about 2.58% for the year from last year's closing of 267361. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past day, following the high established Thu. Apr. 5, 2018. Relying on our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 267964 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 257823. This provides a 3.78% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 329920 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 244654. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 25%.

The last event was a low established during 2016.

A possible change in trend appears due come this month in S&P 500 Cash Index so be focused. Last month produced a neutral inside trading range from the previous month. Immediately, we have broken beneath last month's low. We now need to close below 258589 on a monthly basis to imply a technical reversal of trend to the downside for now.

Looking at the near-term level, the market has closed up 47.7% from the last cycle low established during 2016, which has been only a 1 year rally from that event. Turning to the long-term perspective, the market has still closed on the Yearly level up 4286.5% from the strategic low established during 1974, which has been a 43 year rally from that key event.

Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is neutral providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bearish reflecting resistance forming at 255380.

On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of February 5th at 253269, which was down 2 weeks from the high made back during the week of January 22nd. We have seen the market drop shaply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed lower. We are trading below the Weekly Momentum Indicators warning that the decline is very significant and we need to pay attention to the timing and reversals.

At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Eyeballing the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 3 weeks. The last high on the weekly level was 280190, which was created during the week of March 12th. The last weekly level low was 253269, which formed during the week of February 5th, and only a break of 259306 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 262245 above the market.

Critical support still underlies this market at 244654 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Overall on a broader basis, looking at the monthly level on our models, this market has been in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 25 months. The last monthly level low was 181010, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 253269 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the monthly level was 287287, which was created during January.

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