Market Direction and Stock Trends

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:::: Dow Jones Industrials Index Cash Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | April 7, 2018

Analysis for the Week of April 9, 2018

THE ANALYSIS PERSPECTIVE AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Apr. 6, 2018: Dow Jones Industrials closing today of 2393276 so far is trading down about 3.18% for the year from last year's closing of 2471922. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past day, following the high established Thu. Apr. 5, 2018. Looking at our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 2615343 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 2336028. This provides a 10% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 3081752 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 2241590. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 27%.

The last event was a low established during 2009, which has been a nine year rally from that low to date warning from a trading perspective, a pause in trend is possible.

A possible change in trend appears due come this month in Dow Jones Industrials so be focused. Last month produced a neutral inside trading range from the previous month. Immediately, we have broken beneath last month's low. We now need to close below 2350906 on a monthly basis to imply a technical reversal of trend to the downside for now.

Regarding the near-term level, the market has closed up 282.0% from the last cycle low established during 2009, which has been only a 8 year rally from that event. Nonetheless, turning to the long-term perspective, the market has still closed on the Yearly level up 4236.7% from the strategic low established during 1974, which has been a 43 year rally from that key event.

Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is neutral providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bearish reflecting resistance forming at 2366433.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of January 22nd at 2661671, which was up 64 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 31st of 2016. We have been generally trading down for the past 5 weeks, which has been a sharp move of .0951%.

Looking at this from a broader perspective, this current rally into the week of February 26th reaching 2580035 has failed to exceed the previous high of 2661671 made back during the week of January 22nd. We have seen only a minor reaction rally from the last low for the past 4 weeks. A break of the last low will warn of a continued decline ahead. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 4 weeks overall.

At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Addressing the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 5 weeks. The last high on the weekly level was 2580035, which was created during the week of February 26th. The last weekly level low was 1788356, which formed during the week of October 31st, and only a break of 2370873 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. However, we still remain above key support 2336029 on a closing basis.

Critical support still underlies this market at 2241590 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Overall on a broader basis, looking at the monthly level on our models, this market has been in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 31 months. The last monthly level low was 1537033, which formed during August 2015, and only a break of 2336029 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the monthly level was 2661671, which was created during January.

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