ChromaDex Corp. (CDXC)

[Milarepa]

Everybody has their own theory about this. My theory...
is that the litigation isn't the main thing that's keeping the share price low.

In order for the company to be worth a billion dollars, it has to sell a LOT of Niagen. Right now it has a good plan, but I think people can reasonably doubt how well ChromaDex can execute on that. If Niagen catches on and people buy it from ChromaDex, then share price will follow revenue growth, no matter the rest.

The reason I don't think the litigation is a huge factor is because I don't really see the scenario where ChromaDex comes up empty. Elysium's claims are tenuous, ChromaDex's IP looks good, and Elysium has not explained why they are going to get to sell somebody else's patented product.

Even if Elysium somehow manages to get all remaining claims invalidated through IPR -- which I doubt -- they would STILL be in violation of both patents. So when it's all said and done, I believe that Elysium is going to have to exit the NR market or start paying royalties to ChromaDex -- the litigation will determine which path and how much in royalties.

It is possible that much of the litigation gets resolved quickly -- e.g., Elysium's NY lawsuit can just be thrown out, and Elysium's tort claims in SoCal might be vulnerable to summary judgment motions (no way to know).

On the other hand, even if the IPR and SoCal proceedings end on schedule in 2018, a whole new wave of litigation based on patent infringement can begin, and that will likely include affirmative defenses of invalidity, so it will feel like we are starting all over again. I think big companies with valuable IP find themselves in a state of perpetual litigation. That's not necessarily a bad place for ChromaDex to be.