aldaka, there is a shift in manufacturing from the US to China and other less expensive locations. This is and has been an on-going process. Surprisingly, even the automakers are really moving parts and component production offshore.
Tool and Die jobs are going to continue to be lost. Injection molding jobs for small parts are going to be lost. Light assembly, and even more complex electronics have all been moving off-shore. Textile jobs, if any are left, will go also.
Heck, even refrigerators from China are beginning to get increased shelf space in Best Buy.
When a piece of tooling is made in the USA, about 10% of the cost of the item is material, with labor about 50%. Capitalized equipment costs and other costs make up the balance.
In China, the labor cost is less than 5%.
Why would you do any tooling here if you don't need it this instant?
Unemployment is a lagging indicator. People do not hire workers unless there is a clear indication that a recovery is at hand.
Construction unemployment should start rising soon due to the pinched government budgets and decline in housing starts. Commercial construction has been flat for some time.
Basically, unless there is a good year of growth and capacity utilization increases, unemployment should not drop.
