The landscaped has definitely changed with the Xtra for sale news. Let me share my analysis and opinion on this and put myself in Tony and Frank's shoes.
Where we were.....
On Sept 1 a $1 million deposit was given to Songbird non refundable. I truly believe in order for a non refundable deposit to be given, the financing was in place, no one in their right mind will give that deposit and then try and find financing. Its just common sense and I relate it to the real estate business I am in. We dont go out buy a $6.5 million house and put a $1 million non refundable deposit then go out and try and get our financing, we put a $1 million refundable deposit insert a financing clause in the offer and home inspection clause. There is a thought on my mind here re the plane being the house, during the inspection of the plane did they find hidden defects that caused the deal to fall through? Just exhausting all options, might not have been but just saying....
Nov 30 the deal is dead and announced by Tony saying long term interest of shareholders etc but more importantly he said similar options or something to that effect. How much more similar than the Xtra opportunity before him now? Same Ceo, same one aircraft. So then I say to myself, is that where the $1 mill went? In the pr by Xtra they stated at the beginning of the PR yesterday, in negotiations.....how long have they been in negotiations and with whom?
Nov 30 to yesterday no news, deadsville, speculation is the company has lost Songbird and nothing else is on the table so they are quiet. Is this the true reality of them being quiet or have they been working on this deal...no one knows.
To summarize this Xtra opportunity is the best to date for BLTA imo. They have staff, they have routes, its a name change only with no start up costs so yes it is day and night opportunity compared to Songbird. I am gonna throw this out there for your own determination but am a businessman and my instinct tells me a deal might already be in the making between Xtra and BLTA. If I were Tony for sure I would see this in my face opportunity and go get it, if I were Frank I would review an offer from BLTA only to announce that Xtra is for sale and allow time ( April 30 ) to see what other offers I can get in the best interest for Xtra shareholders. In real estate, we sometimes hold offers for a week to determine market value if we get an offer in a short time, maybe this is what Frank is doing.
To me it would be a beautiful thing for Frank to award BLTA with its 29 yrs of trying and to remember Igor and award BLTA... Xtra. This is something in life that is not on paper its not in numbers, but it soothes the soul so to speak.
Re Tony and the financing hurdle for Xtra potentially .... I put myself in the financing group's shoes, Tony came to the financing group with Xtra with routes in place, staff in place and up for sale, chances are way better with this scenario for funding than if he came with nothing on the table or an airline that is parked. No staff no routes.
So you see, Xtra has BLTA written all over it as a fit, its not the financing that will be the obstacle imo, the success of this transaction will rest on the leadership team to get this done and make decisions or revise them based on Xtra getting an offer during the for sale til the end of April period.
Very interesting indeed, the above is speculation and BLTA may not be in at all, but from where I am sitting they are. Lets see what happens....
