Mwm. I would even state further than you that this small 4.76% of the entire well in sc72 might even be worth as much as a billion dollar cash value in the 18 year history it takes to pump it out. Maybe even 2 billion if they find 16tcf instead of just matching malampaya value. (Making it a 4 dollar stock) for cash value alone)The problem is it won't reflect that anytime soon or even close to it. I don't mind sitting on it for 18 yrs in my ira or 401k until I receive every last dime in it's hidden value but the risk of it being majority owned by pxp is that they will offer a 50% premium when its trading around 6 cents to buy this out at 10 cents. Maybe I should be happy to get 1000% of my money, but this would happen when both apx are up like 2000% each and on their way to realizing their full market value. Pxp has no reason to unlock fecofs hidden value so they can buy it on the cheap. Like I said before, that chart I showed you on pxp had everything to do with how pxp's value was being recognized when sc72 was considered valid and undisputed and a few months away from being drilled again for a "proven reserves" figure. The market gave them over a billion us valuation making fecofs 25% in sc72 worth 500mil in comparison and yet the stock was never worth more than roughly 25 mil instead of the 500 mil I expected on the fee market. So I've been in your shoes with the same analysis but it wasn't recognized or evaluated like that. So it's hard to believe in a similar scenario with fecof having dwindled to a 6.7% of forum , that it would somehow run to 50 cents. God willing I wish I am wrong bro. I sat on this turd since 2007? I think when manny pangilinan lied about the gold and it was a total bust. It came back to life with them buying forum energys 25% stake and the reports of a 2.7 tcf find.... now there are different surveys that say as high as 15tcf recoverable(which one to believe?)
Pxp can refuse a buyout offer on the way up , from a competitor, but fecofs buyout offer from pxp gets automatically approved .
The only way I can be proven wrong on the action, and god I do hope I'm proven wrong as I deserve to be a little greedy holding out for this long, is if somehow someone like Shell oil or chevron from Malampaya makes an unsolicited bid to buy fecof and a bidding war Starts for some corporates who want the undervalued play on sc72 and a seat on the board of directors who want to know pxp's next moves (keep your enemies close). Maybe Shell oil or Chevron from Malampaya make a move and bid on this after the contract is signed and with a "proven reserves" estimate.
Until then my friend mwm, and I do consider all my fellow investors friends, I think it's wise to own both pxp and apx shares to balance out fecof. If pxp or apx gets a p.e. Of 3 then where fecof unlikely would, then the other two easily get a bigger return than fecof. Unfortunately for Fecof
I would like to know your opinion oh how you think forum would distribute the cash if it's ll . Or do you think it will be locked up in forums equity until forum goes public once again one day
