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S&P 500 Index Cash Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | March 17, 2018

Analysis for the Week of March 19, 2018

WRITTEN OPINION AS OF THE CLOSE Fri. Mar. 16, 2018: S&P 500 Cash Index closed today at 275201 and is trading up about 2.93% for the year from last year's closing of 267361. So far, we have been trading up for the past day since the reaction low made on Thu. Mar. 15, 2018. Relying on our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 278786 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 259886. This provides a 6.77% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 329920 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 244654. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 25%.

The last event was a low established during 2016.

A possible change in trend appears due come April in S&P 500 Cash Index so be focused. Last month produced a low at 253269 and so far, we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 283596 to 253269. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.

Looking at the near-term level, the market has closed up 47.7% from the last cycle low established during 2016, which has been only a 1 year rally from that event. Turning to the long-term perspective, the market has still closed on the Yearly level up 4286.5% from the strategic low established during 1974, which has been a 43 year rally from that key event.

Our Daily level momentum is bearish while the trend indicator is bullish providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bullish 277926.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of January 22nd at 287287, which was up 64 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 31st of 2016. We have been generally trading up for the past 5 weeks from the low of the week of February 5th, which has been a move of.0974 percent.

At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Addressing the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 7 weeks. The last high on the weekly level was 287287, which was created during the week of January 22nd. The last weekly level low was 253269, which formed during the week of February 5th, and only a break of 267575 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. However, we still remain above key support 267361 on a closing basis.

Critical support still underlies this market at 244654 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 24 months. The last monthly level low was 181010, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 268236 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the monthly level was 287287, which was created during January.

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