The following, the complete hypothetical scenario, the ultimate thinking outloud, with “bells and whistles”...
Folks, lets construct a complete hypothetical scenario of the touted “building a leading renal company”. It all revolves around, at the core, a billion $$$ franchise, top profit generator for a BIG PHARMA which, some 4 years ago, was projected to come to an end (4 years later), with the introduction of generics. As such, a vision, a project, was outlined and put to work, involving the coming together of a number of companies, a number of drugs, to compete hard in the renal space. Baupost joined the vision, the project, via Keryx in January 2014 and, in Dec. 2015, John P. Butler, CEO of Akebia (Vadadustat) and BOD Director of Relypsa (Veltassa), officially joins the vision, the project, as Keryx BOD Chairman. Somewhere between end of July 2016, when it became official that Relypsa was set to sign with Vifor and not Sanofi, and Relypsa BOD Director John P. Butler recused himself from voting on Relypsa/Vifor deal due to conflicts of interests, meaning ties with the vision, the project, “building a leading renal company” - somewhere between end of July 2016 and May 2017 (Butler signs with Vifor), an integral part of the vision, the project, now in full swing, became sour. The integral part being Butler/Akebia and the product being HIF stabilizer Vadadustat. But this unfortunate development, potentially caused by a deep conflict of sorts between Baupost/Butler and Keryx, did not deter the vision, the project, “a plan”, given it involved other companies, other products. However, the Baupost/Keryx relationship took a hit, became sour, reason why Abrams showed-up - and it has continued till today, as we speak, goes the hypothetical scenario.
So Akebia/Vadadustat out of the vision, the project, “a plan”, but “building of a leading renal company” continued with Keryx and the other companies/drugs, as before mentioned. The other companies/drugs being AMAG/Feraheme (and women’s health of interest) and RMIT/Triferic. Could continue in detail to include the connecting dots for AMAG and RMIT, but this post would become more of VERY long write-up. Needless to say, the AMAG connecting dots have been put forth ad nauseum - the RMIT connecting dots are somewhat different, but are there. These I leave for fellow investors to construct - by now, fellow investors should be “trained” to do just that. The AMAG component directly tied to Keryx (merger) goes the hypothetical, and as put forth in a previous post, the route to not only bring Keryx/AMAG together but, in doing so, serving as the “mechanisms” thru which to “supersede” Baupost/Abrams ownership and take control of Keryx. The RMTI component, not directly tied to Kerx as in the case of AMAG (merger), but nonetheless part of the vision, the project, “a plan” - “building of a leading renal company”. However, as posted to poster KEL in the form of a question yesterday, the vision, the project, “a plan”, involves acquiring majority controlling ownership of the companies followed by a take under at the cheap, Keryx included.
Now, during the developmental years of the vision, the project, “a plan”, years in the making prior to generics hitting the market, a number of underlying machinations and factoring-in of key events apply across the board, for all companies part of “building a leading renal company”, such as, laying groundwork, short trading/options operation generating massive profits, controlled commercialization of products, FDA approval of extended indications, acquiring majority ownership/control, etc. Also, during these years, a WIDE ARRAY of other sequence of events have taken place, different and varied depending of which company you want to look at/ review. At this juncture, after all components/machinations of the vision, the project, “a plan” have been realized or in final stages of being consummated, and with generics now launched and cannibilizing like piranhas, end game in sight.
Brilliant strategy by the Big Pharma company, top 5 in the world. Highly commend the strategy, embrace it, wish it a most successful future in competing effectively with the likes of Vifor Fresenius. But, the brilliant strategy, has not been shareholder friendly. It has taken common shareholders on a very long ugly ride and, the end game, might short-change the true value and ROI for common shareholders after all these years.
In the case of Keryx, Baupost/Abrams in the mix, at odds with the “powers that be” goes the hypothetical scenario, and how Baupost/Abrams are playing/play this out, is unknown.
As stated, much more to say, much more to include and go along with this post, but it would become a VERY long write-up, much longer than it already is.
ALL the above in my opinion, hypothetical, thinking outloud, in theory...
