all bull markets must come to an end, but what will be the catalyst??
Trump is the best thing to happen to stock market since March 09 bottom bc of BEN BERNANKE's 0 interest rate policy and QE 1 2 and 3.
FAANG (tech) is 26% of S&P 500, that should be very worrisome over next few years, especially is M&A is going to be blocked (which is probably good, cant have GOOGLE and FB running my life)
AAPL is stil interesting bet only bc of cash hoard and repatriation.
My biggest concerns are INTEREST RATES HAVE TO RISE and the FED is still behind the curve, if OIL fails to break $70 by summer, watchout, and if interest rates don't rise, Financials can only do so much since they are priced for perfection.
CRYPTO will be disruptive no matter what, if it fails, people lose BILLIONS, if it goes ballistic, stocks suffer???
S&P 500 at 3000 is huge deal due to what kind of realistic rates of return can honestly be expected if that target is hit?? even 10% upside from current levels is no easy task, tax reform or not.
If Trump administration loses in 2020, stocks are in big trouble, so do Democrats keep him in office if market continues to rise??
ALso, I am big fan of the tariffs and tough stance on CHina, and the DOLLLAR needs to stay strong, so to me, I am now very cautious, especially is we had the blow out top earlier in year, what do you think, what is your upside targets (realistically) and what is your downside target if this ageing bull turns into a bear in 2019, which is likely. TECH cannot lead forever, can it??
so much data, so many questions, but bull markets do not last forever, there will come a time when BUY THE DIP doesn't work.
-Neb
