Legacy Thread

[basserdan]

Iran provokes Israel with network of Syrian bases

Richard Spencer, Middle East Correspondent
Anshel Pfeffer, Jerusalem
March 12 2018, 12:01am,


Bombs fall in the rebel-held Syrian region of Eastern Ghouta. The long-term significance of Iran’s military build-up in the country has until recently been downplayed — but that is changing Mohammed Eyad/Getty Images

Israeli military intelligence and satellite technology have identified at least ten Iranian military bases in Syria as the threat of war between the two rises.

The bases are home to tens of thousands of troops from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, which conducts overseas operations, as well as missiles and transfer facilities for supporting Hezbollah, the Lebanon-based Shia militia.

According to Israeli media reports, the country’s military intelligence has submitted a review to the government saying that “two powerful strategic trends are fated to collide: the Iranian insistence on establishing a military presence in Syria, and the Israeli insistence on preventing it”.

“I have a message for you today, it’s a very simple one,” Binyamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, told the influential lobby group American Israel Public Affairs Committee last week. “We must stop Iran, we will stop Iran.”

Until recently the long-term significance of Iran’s military build-up in Syria was disputed. It originally sent in advisers and fighters from Hezbollah in 2012-13 as the rebels first made inroads against the Assad regime. They were officially on a mission to “defend the holy shrines” — sites of Shia worship at risk from hardline Sunni Islamist rebels, including Islamic State.

They have since established themselves in bases across the country and Israel believes that they are using them as way-stations for building Hezbollah’s arsenal of missiles, which Iran claims to number more than 100,000. They have also sponsored militias operating in the south of Syria.

Until a month ago, defence analysts thought the chance of conflict was low becaused the damage for Hezbollah and Israel would be huge and the potential gains for either limited.

This changed after a clash between Israeli, Iranian and Syrian forces last month. An Iranian military drone was tracked entering Israeli air space from the northeast. The Israeli air force shot it down and then launched a punitive mission against the base from which intelligence indicated it came — Tiyas, which is near Palmyra in Syria. One of the jets was shot down as it returned, prompting raids that Israel claim took out half of Syria’s air defence systems.

Tiyas is one of ten bases occupied by the Revolutionary Guard, according to research by the Britain Israel Communications and Research Centre (Bicom), which it said had been verified by the Israeli Defence Forces.

Tiyas was one of two bases in Homs province alone — the other, Shayrat, was also struck in the past year, by cruise missiles fired by the United States in retaliation for a chemical attack on the town of Khan Sheikhoun last April.

The Revolutionary Guard’s central command is based in a compound at Damascus International Airport, apparently known as the “Glass Building”.

Israel’s prime target is the base at Izra in the south. It houses surface-to-air missiles but more importantly is used by the Revolutionary Guard for operations in southwest Syria, near the border with Israel and Jordan.

There is a ceasefire in place in Deraa, near Izra, that was negotiated in Jordan by Russia and the US. Israeli diplomats were also in Amman at the time being briefed on the talks, which they were promised would include a guarantee that Iranian and allied militias could not go within 60km (37 miles) of the border with the Israeli-occupied Golan. That promise, if made, was ignored.

Iran has backed a string of Iraqi, Pakistani, Afghan and other militias in the Syrian war, as well as Hezbollah. Bicom believes that, including the Revolutionary Guard, more than 50,000 foreign forces are fighting alongside Assad.

On top of that, an estimated 90-100,000 Syrian troops fight in the National Defence Forces, a paramilitary force trained by Iran. That far outnumbers the front line fighting strength of the Syrian Army.

Analysts say that at present many of the bases are little more than barracks. Israeli intelligence assesses that the Revolutionary Guard wants to build an air base, a military dock on Syria’s Mediterranean shore and sites to make missiles for the Syrian Army and Hezbollah.

Israel relies on its armed forces and diplomatic cover by the US and, to a lesser extent, Russia, for its defence. The US began joint war games with Israel last week, while Mr Netanyahu is said to have developed a close relationship with President Putin.

Optimists on the Israeli side point out that Russia did not intervene to stop the Israeli raid on Tiyas — even though Russian troops are thought to be situated on the base. Pessimists note that Russia did not stop Iran sending the drone or using Syria as a base to threaten Israel, and it remains unclear whether Mr Putin has any intention of stopping deeper Iranian influence in Syria.

Israel has begun arming and funding southwest Syrian rebel groups as Assad and Iranian backers seek to take control of the border areas, an alliance some are comparing with Israel’s deals with Christian militias in Lebanon’s civil war.

“The sheer number of moving pieces in Syria is creating a combustible situation with high potential for miscalculation, error and rapid escalation between Israel, Iran and its allies,” Bicom said.

Analysis

Until very recently, the assessment of Israel’s intelligence community was that a war on its northern border this year was “unlikely” (Anshel Pfeffer writes).

That all changed on February 10 when Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps launched a drone into Israeli airspace. It was shot down and Israeli jets attacked the control centre in Syria, starting a five-hour air battle.

A month on, Israeli analysts are still uncertain why Iran took the risk. In the past drones have tried to enter Israeli airspace but they have always been operated by proxies — Hezbollah, Hamas, or the Assad regime. In all their decades of enmity, this was the first direct military confrontation between Israel and Iran.

Binyamin Netanyahu has said Israel will carry out more airstrikes on Iranian targets if the plan continues. With two immovable forces squaring off on Syrian territory, war now seems almost inevitable.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/iran-provokes-israel-with-network-of-syrian-bases-92zb8d3w0