Tuesday, October 10, 2006 6:37:40 PM
‘A recent Merrill Lynch economic report said that as much as half of the nation's economic growth is related to housing sales, construction and spending from home equity loans. Another warning sign is that new-car sales are down about 5 percent from a year ago. This has happened six times over the past 40 years, and in every instance the economy was either lapsing into recession or already in recession.'
‘Perhaps even more troubling is the so-called inversion of the bond yield curve. An inverted yield curve takes away the incentive for banks to make loans. For example, if a bank is paying 5 percent on a one-year certificate of deposit, it won't have much incentive to lend money long term at 5 percent or less. In other words, because the profit margin is too small for the risks involved, banks reduce lending, and that slows the economy. The yield curve has been inverted since June.'
‘The U.S. housing slump is going to start costing jobs, underscoring a threat to consumer spending that's already slowing as home prices fall, economists say. Spending will be further discouraged as job losses mount and more people start to fret about job security, says Pozsar of Moody's Economy.com. ‘Together with softer house-price trends and shrinking proceeds from mortgage-equity withdrawal, weaker growth in wages and salaries due to payroll declines in housing-related industries will weigh on household cash flow and consumption,' Pozsar wrote.'
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