Biotech Values

[iwfal]

Leerink is modeling €2B peak sales not including the first line setting...I'm curious about what part you disagree with?

1) First and foremost, I'd suggest that acne (and this is effectively a severe, but non-facial, acne) cannot demand anywhere near the price premium of more severe diseases. Note: even the pictures of very severe cases look nothing like, for instance, epidermolysis bullosa (which often occurs in the same areas).

2) Related to #1, and unlike more severe diseases, there will be a high fraction of people who choose not to get treated.

3) I'd expect it to work for only a limited duration since that has been how, historically, treatments in the inflammatory space work. Probably longer than ada, but, ... perhaps median of 3 years?

So, lets say 400,000 patients in the US and EU combined. 3/4 elect not to get treated or drop out very quickly because it isn't worth the hassle or $ or ... . The remaining 1/4 get treated for 3 years at $25k per year - and IFRX gets 1/2 of that 1/4. Total for that is about $7.5B over 3 years - but of course I wouldn't expect it to ramp or tail off in that way. My guess is, optimistically, $500M per year - but with all the risks to get there. (I think the diseases where complement components pile up in the kidney have much larger NPV potential despite being much smaller indications - much higher % uptake, more extreme pricing (if they aren't also trying to sell into acne inversa), and longer duration of treatment because treatment is closer to actual disease MOA.)

Of course none of this is to say that it isn't worth pursuing. It is still a reasonable market - but there are other investments I find more attractive.

To state the obvious, critique is welcome. But I am, by nature, a skeptic.

BTW - It is fascinating to me that the only known genetic mutations linked to acne inversa are related to hair follicle development.