The GraveYard Shift

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Day in a Chart


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A "Day In A Chart" Crossfire on Friday Night Yee Haw :)


En Joy

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Stock Bulls Rejoice At Weak Wages, Cohn Exit, & Global Trade War

Spot the odd one out: Dow +700pts, USD Index unchanged, 30Y Yield unchanged, Gold unchanged.



Here’s one way to look at this week…

or another…

No matter which you prefer, the stock market overwhelmingly endorsed a lack of wage growth, the start of a global trade war, and the exit of the last globalist from The White House…



From last Friday’s open, it’s been one way…



Who could have seen that coming?

Fresh record highs for the Nasdaq.

As Bloomberg points out though, don’t be fooled by Saturday newspaper headlines which scream: “Booming Job Growth Sends Nasdaq to Record High.” Back in the financial pages there will also be a story worrying about the narrowness of the rally. An equal-weighted version of the Nasdaq 100 is not making a record high today, which only widens the gap with the modified cap-weighted index since Donald Trump’s election.



Just five stocks account for half of the 7.4% rally from the February 8 low to today’s all-time high in the Nasdaq 100. The five – in order of point contributions: Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Intel. Another way to look at it, 25% of companies in the index fell since the trough.

Investors rushed into safe-haven FANG Stocks (up 6.9% on the week)…



This chart from BofAML might suggest why – 2018 has started with the fastest inflows into tech stocks since the crisis…



It seems bank stocks don’t care about rates not moving or about Gary Cohn leaving The White House!!



The Dow closed at its Fib 61.8% retrace of the Feb-Flop… NOTE how The Dow is finding serious support/resistance at these key levels…



Today did not appear to be a short-squeeze as “Most Shorted” stocks flatlined as indices ripped higher…



VIX flash-crashed to a 13 handle intraday, perfectly tagging the 100DMA at 13.31, before bouncing back but still closing notably lower on the week…



Bloomberg notes that it appears an options trader dubbed the “Elephant” is responsible for the flash-crash as he returned to close out a portion of a March three-way trade. About 121.6k March $25 calls were bought for 25 cents, potentially closing a portion of a trade from Feb. 2 when ~526k were sold for 62 cents. Separately, 60k May $60 calls appear to have been bought for 15 cents vs open interest of ~6.1k.

Treasury yields ended marginally higher on the week with the long-end outperforming…very narrow range for the week.



This is the 11th day in a row that the 10Y yield has closed with a 2.8x% handle.



Despite all the exuberance in stocks this week, the dollar index ended unchanged…



While the dollar was unchanged, cryptocurrencies collapsed on the week with Bitcoin down 20% – one of its worst weeks in years…



Bitcoin ended back below $9k… but NOTE the heavy-volume dumps at the European close each of the last three days…



Gold ended the week unchanged, crude was lagging into this morning but ripped higher to close green…



NOTE – WTI’s big moves were all around the 11ET time (EU close)

Bonus Chart: No one should be surprised by today’s disappointing-wage-growth-driven rally – it is the norm!!



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