SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)

[risk on]

9ema (S) beat d50 (R), but....

That’s not all either , spy even had its bottom wick today prove out the 9 ema as S before closing above d50 at HOD, so it’s all gravy....right?

Eh, not so sold here. Because the weekly MACDs are still crossed below, and this pattern Spy is in, the one I keep crowing about, where the BBs constrict and range gets tighter until there is a definitive move, etc. Well that pattern has one other trait, which I spoke about Thursday morning , and that is “ KRAZY IVAN” . By that I mean when all cylinders look go and everything is just so certain via candle pattern and key lines ( EMAs / MAs , ) that’s when the direction suddenly changes .

There is no immediate R until upper B.B. ( 20,2,2 ) now that d50 has been bested, but in a previous period ( same pattern) that I’ve been studying religiously lately, it seems the sudden directional shifts occur right after a R or S break ( direction shifts work both ways ) .

But, the swings to and fro will become less pitched , as BBs contract over week / s - month/s ( I’m thinking a couple - few weeks here ) , leading to one strong definitive move .

The take away here is , even though everything looks green to go , I am expecting the opposite . Perhaps we see a solid day up tomorrow , or maybe it doesn’t even make it all the way through tomorrow , but I believe any move up will be ephemeral and a swing back down will occur in short order .