Agreed on PCMI and am surprised so many others on the board are willing to give them a pass. Here's the guidance they gave in the Q4 report last year:
Commenting on PCM’s outlook, Khulusi stated, “It’s a great time to be at PCM, and we’re better positioned than ever for the future. Looking ahead, for the first quarter, we expect adjusted EPS in the range of $0.20 to $0.24 on net sales of $515 million to $530 million. For the year, we currently aim to deliver net sales of $2.34 billion to $2.38 billion and adjusted EPS of $2.00 to $2.15, with adjusted EPS ramping sequentially for each of the quarters of this year, as these incremental investments begin to bear fruit.”
They missed that by a mile. So how can you trust what they say about 2018??? After that bullish forecast, PCMI only earned an adjusted $1.20/share for 2017. Down from $1.89/share the year before. Yes $1.20 is still good for a stock trading in the $8's. But Q1 & Q2 were solid quarters, while Q3 & Q4 were alarming disappointments. They missed their own estimates badly. In the Q2 earnings PR, they were expecting Q3 adjusted earnings of .56-.62/share. They came in at .34/share. Q4 even worse. Gave guidance for Q4 adjusted earnings of .55-.61/share. Came in at only .17/share. Keep in mind Q4 is typically one of their strongest quarters of the year. Annualize that .17/share to .68/share and the stock doesn't look so cheap. Those are 'adjusted' earnings too, GAAP earnings lower. PCMI will trade at a sharp discount anyway due to its low margin sector and lack of growth. The deteriorating balance sheet won't help either.
Not sure why PCMI is struggling while the economy & tech sector are booming. What happens when those cool off. That $2 guidance looks like pie in the sky at this point. As littlefish pointed out, there's only a few weeks left in Q1 yet they gave no Q1 guidance. Maybe these guys should just stay out of the guidance business since they're so lousy at it. I wouldn't believe anything they say at this point. Sick of the overpromise & underdeliver routine. Ok Q1 sounds like it could be off to a promising start. Revenues are actually above that 5% target so far according to the CC. But Q1 is seasonally weak and who knows what the bottom line will look like. I wouldn't hold my breath on the SG&A cuts saving the day. Remember how they cut $12M in costs at the end of Q3. Well that sure didn't help Q4!
Hope it works out for those remaining. I was happy to bail AH. Nice pop this week from $7 to $9. Maybe it'll jump even more tomorrow. But I think eventually PCMI will resume its slide after those terrible Q4 results. Back to the $7's or lower. I won't be rushing to buy back in. Until this bumbling management team can show me they can turn this thing around.
