Fannie Mae (FNMA)

[contrarian bull]

60 day timer - makes sense it's based on when the writedowns on the DTA's were booked.

I thought it was tim howard's writeup that mused that perhaps freddie won't need a draw since if you take their average net earnings and assign a daily value to it - it might exceed their negative worth reported at the end of Q4. Maybe someone else.

Well - some may think the likelihood of liquidation is well below 50%, but I'm still holding it there... if you assume liquidation value the net worth is key. Right now as an ongoing business, the market is valuing f&f well below a buck.

Dodd Frank won't affect f&f, but any reform shows a change in mind set - which increases the odds congress will do nothing - which is FANTASTIC!!!! We shall see.

After a full recap - that net worth would go to shareholder value - so that would bring f&f well over $50-100 without the warrants. $10-20 with them exercised. But I think full recap is a year or two away, and still only 50-50 odds.

I am giving keeping the status quo less than 10% odds now.

But take my advise with a grain of salt, and a shot of tequila.