Kondriatev wave 52-53yrs
In a study I read, the 52-53 wavelength was definitely found on global GDP, as was 3-4 yrs and either 6-8 yrs or 7-9 yrs, depending on data manipulation to handle disruptions of war years.
The important cyclic conclusion, yo me, is that the normal syructure of 2/4/8 subcycles would equate to 4 of 13yr and 8 of 6.5yr wavelengths. This is close to what has been observed, and lends credence to idea that Hurst length of 8.8yrs has been shortened by faster communication and tighter integration of world economies.
The massive efforts by world central banks to support evonomies have delayed downswing if this cycle but have notceliminated it. From a low in 2002, the 13yr cycle was due in 2015, and from 2009 the 6.5yr was due late 2015. This was seen in price action.
From 2009, the 13 yr count would target early 2022, and 6.5yrs from low early 2016 would target late 2022.
I have previously posted re sum of 3 harmonics suggesting high in July +- maybe 2 months.
The low in Feb broke my cyclic trendline support for part of a day, but most indicators are still showing up. Breaking lows if Feb would be very negative; if mkt does rally, IMHO 3100 SPX or above would be an excellent exit either on limit orders or on signals thereafter from oscillators such as CCI.
Most analysts consider last low of K-wave to be 1974 timeframe, which points to 2026-2028 as potential low in global GDP. This implies recession and severe mkt decline into that time period. No surprise in that...
Oddlot
Stay on the right side of the cycle!
