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:::: S&P 500 Index Cash Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | March 3, 2018

Analysis for the Week of March 5, 2018

WRITTEN VIEW PER THE CLOSE OF Fri. Mar. 2, 2018: S&P 500 Cash Index closed today at 269125 and is trading up about 0.65% for the year from last year's closing of 267361. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 3 days, while we have made a low at 264732 following the high established Tue. Feb. 27, 2018, this price action warns of at least a pause in trend if not a retest of key support. Only a close above 269625 would imply a retest of the previous high. Applying our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 278786 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 259886. This provides a 6.77% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 329920 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 244654. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 25%.

The last event was a low established during 2016.

A possible change in trend appears due come April in S&P 500 Cash Index so be focused. Last month produced a low at 253269 and so far, we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 283596 to 253269. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.

Focusing on the near-term level, the market has closed up 47.7% from the last cycle low established during 2016, which has been only a 1 year rally from that event. Concentrating on the long-term perspective, the market has still closed on the Yearly level up 4286.5% from the strategic low established during 1974, which has been a 43 year rally from that key event.

Our Daily level momentum and trend indicators are both bearish reflecting resistance forming at 268527. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is bullish while the cyclical strength indicator is bearish providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of January 22nd at 287287, which was up 64 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 31st of 2016. We have been generally trading up for the past 3 weeks from the low of the week of February 5th, which has been a move of.0928 percent.

At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Eyeing the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 5 weeks. The last high on the weekly level was 287287, which was created during the week of January 22nd. The last weekly level low was 253269, which formed during the week of February 5th. That is critical technical support and a breach of that low would warn of the potential shift in near-term trend. However, we still remain above key support 267361 on a closing basis.

Critical support still underlies this market at 244654 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 24 months. The last monthly level low was 181010, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 268236 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the monthly level was 287287, which was created during January.

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