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Re: arvitar post# 138075

Tuesday, 02/27/2018 3:49:59 PM

Tuesday, February 27, 2018 3:49:59 PM

Post# of 146196
Without either of us seeing the full report, it sounds like you are second-guessing the interpretation NNVC reported as cherry picking and overly optimistic (in part since they don't match your model).

However, there is no allegation of fraud or scam by either those preparing the report nor those reporting the results of the report - specifically, that the market is likely to still be in the billions even after the shingles vaccine.

All models are based on assumptions, and these assumptions were not explicitly stated here. I think NNVC reported the base scenario / executive summary, but this is hard to say with certainty. Do you think they really reported the most optimistic (say maybe 5% probability) instead of the expected (highest probability, say 50%) scenario? Don't think they could get away with that, and don't think the market analyst would allow someone to misrepresent their work as such.

'Tis all speculation either way.
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