Worlds Inc (WDDD)

[abcd12]

Let’s look at Worlds from the perceived risk perspective, and for simplification let's assume that there are no other factors such as time value of money, dilutions, operating expense, and so on.

Let’s assume a potential windfall is $250,000,000 after tax, court cost, lawyer fees, interest & debt payment to loan sharks, Kidrin’s salary and other expenses, and the outstanding fully diluted share is 50,000,000 shares.

For no risk scenario, the probability of success is then 100% or 1 (the jury, CAFC, SCOTUS are all on Worlds’ side), which would give the following WDDD valuation/share:

WDDD = ($250,000,000/50,000,000 share) * 100% probability = $5/share.

Since WDDD is currently trading at $0.36/share, this means that the market is heavily discounted on WDDD and effectively gives WDDD a dismal probability of winning the court battle at 7.2% :

WDDD = ($250,000,000/50,000,000 share) * 7.2% probability = $0.36/share.

If the risk factor is a "coin-toss", then the risk factor is 50% or 0.50:

WDDD = ($250,000,000/50,000,000 share) * 50% probability = $2.50/share.

What is the fair net windfall, and the fair risk factor in this Worlds v. Activision saga?