Saturday, February 24, 2018 4:04:40 PM
Let’s assume a potential windfall is $250,000,000 after tax, court cost, lawyer fees, interest & debt payment to loan sharks, Kidrin’s salary and other expenses, and the outstanding fully diluted share is 50,000,000 shares.
For no risk scenario, the probability of success is then 100% or 1 (the jury, CAFC, SCOTUS are all on Worlds’ side), which would give the following WDDD valuation/share:
WDDD = ($250,000,000/50,000,000 share) * 100% probability = $5/share.
Since WDDD is currently trading at $0.36/share, this means that the market is heavily discounted on WDDD and effectively gives WDDD a dismal probability of winning the court battle at 7.2% :
WDDD = ($250,000,000/50,000,000 share) * 7.2% probability = $0.36/share.
If the risk factor is a "coin-toss", then the risk factor is 50% or 0.50:
WDDD = ($250,000,000/50,000,000 share) * 50% probability = $2.50/share.
What is the fair net windfall, and the fair risk factor in this Worlds v. Activision saga?
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