S&P 500 Analysis & ETF Trading

[kiy]

TimeFrames .... CCI intraday cycles
One Minute chart...I don't encourage trading this chart...but it shows intraday support/resistance/trend lines...what you see on this chart needs to start to show "with signals" on a 10 or 15 minute chart for it to maybe be a trade signal...
1Minute http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=1&yr=0&mn=0&dy=1&i=p53060300972&a=578125069&r=1518802300785
5MINUTE http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=5&i=p09374124324&a=441813683&r=932
10 minute Chart...when CCI 20 crosses CCI centerline on this 10 minute chart= you step UP to the signals on the 15 minute chart

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/markets/default.asp
TRIN is not a perfect indicator...read 2nd page
http://www.onlinetradingconcepts.com/TechnicalAnalysis/ArmsIndexTRIN.html
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24TRIN&p=10&yr=0&mn=0&dy=10&i=p39113777576&a=579019062&r=1519239565883
15minute...
WHEN 15 minute CCI crosses centerline you step UP to the 30 minute chart signals and you become exclusive 30minute signals...KEEPS YOU IN THE TRADE FOR THE CYCLE

TVIX http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=10&id=p48433033604&a=548819665&listNum=1
$NYAD http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=5&id=p58189769111&a=438807494&listNum=1
15MIN NYadv/NY/DEC http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=10&id=p58612809856&a=499871359&listNum=1

30 minute chart...This is swing trading (not day trading) the intraday cycle...aka...30 minute exclusive trading is 10minute CCI cross centerline=you step over to use the 15minute chart signals...15 minute CCI cross centerline step over to 30 minute chart and the 30 minute chart becomes exclusive = 30 minute CCI signals= will keep you in the cycle/trade longer and not let 10 or 15 minute chart signals take you out of a trade. The 60minute chart's role is as proxy for the daily chart; intraday 60minute CCI tends to be a laggard within this intraday cycle; so all you want to see is 60minue turning while in oversold or overbought to say the intraday cycle is ending and at the same time you will see 30 minute will be ready to signal a change in direction or has already signaled at the +/- 100 CCI signal line. (...and if anyone is wondering; the 5minute chart is a cycle unto itself...with many major YoYo/false signals....plus the daily and weekly charts also have their own cycle...)
30 Minute

30Minute https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=0&dy=10&i=p77195373922&a=450091265&r=1500658831319
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24NYAD&p=30&yr=0&mn=0&dy=10&i=p28358166888&a=528251665&r=151154371245
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=0&dy=10&i=p17840099703&a=548799407&r=885
60 MINUTE Chart...

https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&i=p50806249894&a=548607246&r=1507221068679
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&i=p10015929759&a=559687713&r=1511892161831
The commodity channel index (CCI) is an oscillator originally introduced by Donald Lambert in 1980. Since its introduction, the indicator has grown in popularity and is now a very common tool for traders in identifying cyclical trends not only in commodities, but also equities and currencies. The CCI can be adjusted to the timeframe of the market traded on by changing the averaging period.
Cumulative Charts
CCI 11 settings
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=60&b=5&g=0&i=p93872393137&a=501420218&r=1485208410835
60minute
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=127213332
...3point bricks
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=0&dy=10&id=p94120869774&listNum=1&a=573280226
Daily Chart...

https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p08325724053&a=548584405&r=1507303531950
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p11363957493&a=485948947&r=1478621619403
Weekly

Monthly
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=M&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p55270036158&listNum=1&a=560001437
Notes
Always trade with the direction of the Daily CCI 20.
Swing trades= intraday to 3-5 days. Always trade in the direction of the daily bias even for short term trades...if you really feel you must trade against the daily bias...you need a hair trigger...get out quick if the position moves against you. The S&P 500 Average Range for SPX usually runs around 15 points. This range inceases as volatility increases
Remember...What you're looking at on an intraday 60 minute chart is a daily candle or OHLC price bar "uncompressed" from the daily chart. Kind of a "micro" view of the Macro daily chart...and a daily chart would be a micro view of the weekly chart...
Front Running a Daily chart signal. (...The 60 minute chart can be considered as a proxy for the daily chart and will lead daily chart signals when daily CCI is getting ready to come out of oversold overbought levels...it just takes patience to get the timing..) Rather than only trade the intraday cycle you can use the intraday charts to front run a daily CCI signal. When the Daily CCI is ready to move out of oversold or overbought... your goal eventually is to catch a trade from intraday that carries over onto the daily chart. It takes some practice and patience becoming comfortable with the CCI cycles= Intraday/Daily/Weekly and as the 3 sometimes line up together= synchronized you may consider a larger position.
TimeFrames...Intraday Charts

SWING Trading and SPECULATION
According to Dalbar Inc., over the last 20 years, the average equity investor earned an annualized return of 4.67% while the S&P 500 returned 8.19% per year. The reason given for such poor performance among individual investors is - panic selling. In other words emotion. Most investors possess the intellect needed to analyze data, but very few are able to withstand the powerful influence of psychology and their own emotions.

The Market is a giant feedback loop, showing traders (and anyone who views the market) a thermometer reading of the social mood under which traders, and by extension society, are operating. Most traders seem to think of the market as something that has some external value outside of the price attributed to it by traders. I prefer to think of it as a real-time gauge of a society’s view of their own productive capacity…or more simply put–social mood.
When Markets are understood, the idea that everyone can make money is not only inaccurate but impossible and laughable. Everyone making money means there is no market, because who would be willing to take the other side of the trade?
In addition, most traders feel they can move with the crowd to make a (paper) profit, and then get out before the crowd, turning that trade into a real profit. In theory this is sound, but remember everyone else is setting out to do the same thing. It is this crowd movement which allows traders to make money at times. Without a large portion of traders coming to the same decision markets simply would not move. It takes conviction by many traders to create a trend, then it takes euphoric acceptance that “this is the new norm” to end it and “bend it. ” It then takes mass disillusionment to crash it the other way. (vantagepointtrading.com)

Regression to the Mean is the most powerful law in financial physics
Mean reversions out of extremes are the most powerful and profitable forces in all the financial markets. Riding one has enormous benefits for your wealth.
Financial-market prices and sentiment are like a giant pendulum. The farther they are pulled to one extreme by excessive greed or fear, the farther they necessarily swing to the opposite extreme in the subsequent mean reversion. Like pendulums, these reversions don’t magically stop right in the middle at normal again. Their kinetic momentum carries them through to the opposite ends of their arcs. But overshot extremes don’t last for long, as the universal greed necessary to fuel them quickly burns itself out.