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Re: money4retirement post# 1339

Sunday, 10/08/2006 8:31:05 PM

Sunday, October 08, 2006 8:31:05 PM

Post# of 49891
Daviddal, Nice summary. I'm figuring the odds at approx 80% or better for the clinical hold to be lifted on the first try (by mid October), with the stock moving quickly to $5-6. Sometime before year end I figure a $20-25 mil financing should happen, perhaps in the $4-5 range. After a temporary dip, the stock then quickly moves back up to the $5-6 range, and then gradually trends higher in anticipation of the BP deal. I figure the stock could see $7-8 or more after the BP deal is announced (possibly Q1-07). If some institutions start to pile in, these estimates could be conservative.

Of course if the lift of the clinical hold is delayed (I figure under 20% chance), then we're in for some serious trouble for a while, with an unfavorable financing being needed by early '07. But overall, the current "binary event" odds seem very favorable (80% good vrs 20% bad). I don't have any funds available for bio betting right now, but if I did I'd probably place a decent sized wager on Cortex.

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