Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[eastcoastguy]

Atone, I'll take a stab at it. 6 months ago the old regime was in and trying to convince us all that if we stayed with them all the good things they were developing would come to pass. Cue "astronomical" for one and the description of exosomes as a product that could be commercially viable quickly....meaning sold or partnered. AZN would soon begin combo trials with bavi. Carrots were plentiful and long suffering longs figured "we've waited this long what's a little bit longer".

Fast forward through the proxy battle and settlement agreement. The new regime comes in and has to reset the unrealistic expectations we all wanted to believe. The company was left in shambles, the R&D drug development was on life support left to outside collaborators. Shareholders were diluted to fund the R&D. Management decided to go it alone and we all bought in or sold our shares and moved on. Sunrise failed and no amount of puzzle pieces would put it back together.

The old regime did develop and build AVID. I applaud them for that decision because without it we wouldn't have a company. Call it distraction with the proxy battle or too much focus on the R&D company but they definitely dropped the ball in growing revenues. AVID according to SK would be profitable within 18 months. That timetable is long gone and our IP has been sold for peanuts. Not a pretty picture. Lump on a secondary for another kick in the pants.

Since the first of the year this stock has been shorted endlessly. Those in the know knew a secondary was coming and management would be cleaning up a mess and lowering expectations. Meaning no surprise PR's that would drive the stock. Retail grumbled and sent certified letters. Certain posters reminded us good news was "imminent". Every time the stock ran a bit it was shorted without fear. Makes one think the company is failing. Maybe there's an effort afoot to push retail out so institutional investors can take their place. We can assume the institutional investors have shorted and now will cover safely with the newly issued secondary. This is an old game plan on Wall St for microcaps. Their net cost after covering their profitable short is considerable less than the current SP. We should see greater institutional ownership soon.

Management has gone along with the game plan, less retail the better for them. If the company was in trouble the preferred would be dropping and II would be selling out not buying more. Looked at what Tappan St just purchased.

I don't know whether we are getting screwed or not with the IP sale. I'm suspicious that DART or other insiders are trying to take the IP private. Maybe it just isn't worth much right now. Without more disclosure about who is behind Oncologie we just don't know.

be well,
eastcoastguy