Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

WYE Touts Drug Portfolio and Pipeline

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20061005:MTFH45269_2...

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Thu Oct 5, 2006 4:52 PM ET
By Ransdell Pierson and Lewis Krauskopf

NEW YORK, Oct 5 (Reuters) - Wyeth <WYE> on Thursday raised its 2006 profit forecast and said its recently approved Tygacil antibiotic and three experimental medicines all could post annual sales in the billions of dollars.

The drug maker said it now expects full-year earnings of $3.12 to $3.18 per share, excluding special items. The company previously forecast full-year profit of $3.07 per share, although analysts had been expecting $3.14. The new forecast -- reflecting earnings growth of up to 16 percent over 2005 -- was issued ahead of Wyeth's meeting in New York for analysts and investors at which the Madison, New Jersey-based drug maker touted its pipeline of experimental medicines.

"I think the meeting was a net positive" for Wyeth, said analyst Catherine Arnold of Credit Suisse. Shares of Wyeth were little changed following the nearly six-hour event.

Wyeth Chief Executive Robert Essner identified as likely future blockbusters Pristiq, an altered form of the company's big selling depression drug Effexor, and an improved form of its popular Prevnar vaccine against pneumococcal bacteria.

The company also predicted that two experimental osteoporosis drugs together could eventually garner more than $2 billion in annual sales.

It also expects big things from Tygacil, now sold to treat complicated skin and intra-abdominal infections, if it gains approval for a common form of pneumonia.

Some analysts have said Wyeth's shares are undervalued given its promising drug pipeline and strong growth of current products.

"We think once the information (from the meeting) sinks in and people really see the breadth of opportunities that we have and the many paths we have to success, I'm hopeful at least that we'll see the share price improve some too," Essner told Reuters after the meeting.

The company hopes Pristiq will be approved early next year, well before the expected arrival in 2010 of cheaper generic forms of the popular long-acting form of Effexor. Wyeth said Pristiq was as effective against depression in clinical trials as Effexor. Some analysts have said the newer product has no major advantages over Effexor. [Pristiq is a metabolite of Effexor; I doubt it will be noticeably different for most users, although there may be some users for whom it really does work better.]

But Essner noted Pristiq has also shown promise as a non-hormonal treatment for hot flashes in post-menopausal women.

"The products have some overlap but really have their own positions in the market," Essner said. "Pristiq will be that special product for women with depression or menopausal symptoms or some combination of the two." [LMAO]

An experimental treatment for the bone-thinning disease osteoporosis, called bazedoxifene, is being tested in combination with the female hormone estrogen as another treatment for hot flashes. It would be sold under the brand name Aprela. Bazedoxifene is awaiting U.S. approval for use by itself -- under the brand name Viviant -- to prevent osteoporosis in post-menopausal women.

The company said it expects annual global Prevnar sales to double to $3 billion by 2010 in its current form used to protect children. It predicted the sales potential was even higher for a future version of Prevnar meant to protect both adults and children, by blocking additional strains of pneumococcal bacteria. Wyeth aims to seek U.S. approval in 2009 for the improved product.

Sales of arthritis drug Enbrel outside of North America could soar to $3 billion by 2010, from $1 billion last year, Wyeth said. Amgen Inc. <AMGN> sells Enbrel in North America. Mehta Partners analyst Shaojing Tong called the company's forecasts for Prevnar and Enbrel "bullish," compared with Wall Street expectations.

Wyeth is seeking U.S. approval for its experimental kidney cancer drug, Torisel, which it believes could achieve eventual annual sales of $500 million. That forecast assumes the drug will later be approved to also treat lymphoma. [Torisel is the brand name for temsirolimus, an analog of sirolimus (Rapamune).]

Another closely watched Wyeth drug is bifeprunox, an experimental treatment for schizophrenia that the company said was not as effective in clinical trials as two widely used therapies. Given its lesser effectiveness but better safety profile, Wyeth said the most likely potential use of bifeprunox is to prevent causes of metabolic syndrome -- such as weight gains and higher levels of blood fats and blood sugar -- among already stabilized schizophrenia patients.

Wyeth shares closed down 28 cents to $50.90 on the New York Stock Exchange amid a slight decline for the drug sector.
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